Thanks Ray, laid the unders, and those short favs that were close to your prices (to break even) for a nice 24% profit.

EPL Week 12
 

I am glad to hear some clever success stories in a week when Bournemouth beat Newcastle at Newcastle and Burnley beat Southampton at Southampton. Let’s look forward to week 12, to be played over 18-20 November. Good luck to all!

Ray Stefani

Not so good this week.

Sorry about the bad week
 

With one match unplayed for week 9, my favourites won 8 of the 9 matches that were not tied. What kinds of bets were you making? I am sorry that my predictions didn't work out for you.

Oops
 

Make that 7 of the 8 matches that were not tied.

Hi Ray, go for value from your prices.

Bourne v Hudd, B were top pick but under as was the draw. Loss.
******** V Tott, T top pick, laid A & draw. Loss.
Bright V Stoke, B top pick, draw was under, laid draw. Loss.
Burn v Swan, B top pick and overs, laid S & draw. Win.
Cryst v Ever, C top pick slightly under, laid and made draw worst way. Loss.
Leic v Man C, prices were almost exact to BF. No bet.
Liver v South, L top pick but unders, also laid S. Loss.
Man U v Newc, Again prices almost exact to BF. No bet.
Watf, W Ham, Wat top pick and value, laid draw & WH. Win
W Brom v Che, C top pick but under, also laid draw. Loss

6 losses & 2 wins for me.
Will get it back next week. ;)

EPL Lucky Week 13
 

Week 12 went well. My favourites won 7 of the 8 matches that were not drawn. Good luck with "lucky" week 13.

Better luck week 13
 

\
I look at betting a bit differently. First I look for value in the favourite, that is, seeing if the bookmaker odds exceed mine for the favourite. If not, I look for value in the underdog, seeing if the bookmaker odds exceed mine for the underdog. Otherwise, there would be no bet. If there is a small value bet, there would still be no bet, using 1/2 Kelly. The value bet can be split between the team and a draw to break even on draw.

Last week I only found 4 value bets. There was value in supporting Burnley and Watford, both of which cashed. There was value supporting Tottenham, but that was a loss. There was value supporting Brighton. If the bet was split on win and draw, that bet broke even. If the bet was only on a win, that bet was a loss. Using 1/2 Kelly to allocate the total bet, I calculated a profit either betting only to win or betting to win with a smaller bet to draw.

I am rooting for your comeback in week lucky 13!

Ray Stefani

EPL Week 14, more like week 13.2
 

I hadn't noticed that week 14 starts one day after week 13 ended. I hustled these predictions after yesterday's match. I am tired just thinking about playing games so close together, which probably explains why there were four draws where favourites were happy to take one point on a draw and rest for midweek matches.

Ray Stefani

You've lost me Ray. I had a good week and then a bad week and last week I stayed out. Based on your prices I found 17 "value" bets of which only 2 won. Value in Burnley? yes, but they lost. Slight value in Watford for a win. Value in Tottenham?? your price 1.49, best I saw was 1.30. Value in Brighton?, yes but they lost, not a draw.
Not having a go, you are generous and brave putting up your markets, but saying you 'cashed', or broke even on clearly losing bets is a bit disingenuous."