Manchester City warm favourites since the start of the season
Only danger Liverpool according to bookies
Can Liverpool do it Ray? What do you think. Spurs any chance?

Let's see how the contenders stand right now. We are almost through the first round robin which will be finished with round 19. We just finished round 17. Here are the goal differences and league points.

1. Man City (+38, 44 league points)
2. Liverpool (+30, 45 league points)
3. Chelsea (+21, 37 league points)
4. Tottenham (+15, 39 league points)
5. Arsenal (+14, 34 league points)

That is the same order as for my ratings. So, City is about 1/2 goal better than Liverpool (divide by 17) and 1 or more goals better then the other three. There is some separation between City and Liverpool with the other three and a huge separation after Arsenal.

It gets interesting when we look at the schedule among the five contenders in the second half of the season when each plays the other four. Get this: City is home all four times, Liverpool is home three times and the other three are each home only once. So, City and Liverpool got some separation in the first half of the season among the five even though City had to play the other four away all four times and Liverpool played away in three of four matches. The bottom three were each home three times.

With that really favourable home schedule, City and Liverpool ought to widen their gap. I don’t think that Tottenham (Chelsea or Arsenal) are likely to be tops. Liverpool is only 1/2 goal behind City but up one league point. I like City to win but Liverpool has a solid chance to go top. There can always be unexpected injuries and strategy changes. Klopp could pull it off; but, as I said, I like City.

EPL Round 18 (with 19, 20 and 21 coming soon)
 

Round 17 was something of an early Christmas present. My favourites won 9 of the 10 matches, with no draws. We only had one draw in the last 20 matches so I think it’s no longer necessary to bet on both draws and wins to break even on draws. Just bet on wins. In round 17, value bets were cashed by West Ham, Newcastle and Liverpool supporters.

The only loss by my favourites was very interesting. Southampton has a new coach who installed a more physical, active and aggressive style of play. In his second game he scored a major upset over Arsenal in Round 17. We’ll have to see how Southampton does for the rest of the season.

Good luck with round 18. A lot of holiday soccer is about to be played. There will be 40 matches between now and January 3.

Ray Stefani

Good stuff Ray
Liverpool one of my main bets start of the season
Extra bonus,,get my money back if they run 2nd behind City

Yes, big thanks Ray. Still room to work either City or Liverpool as all-ups with my pacing, chasing & racing longer-shots.

And Manchester United have announced the departure of coach Jose Mourinho after their worst start to a season since 1990-91

A new caretaker manager will be appointed until the end of the current season, while the club conducts a thorough recruitment process for a new, full-time manager, according to the official statement.

EPL Round 19
 

Merry Christmas everyone. The boxing day matches start shortly. The spirit of giving was alive at Chelsea and Man City. Chelsea lost at home to Leicester which had decimal odds of 11 to win while Man City somehow found a way to lose at home to Crystal Palace that rewarded their supporters with a payoff of 21. I wonder how many takers there were, even at 21.

I think the teams are playing exhausted and have 3 more matches through January 3. Also, Southampton's rating lies a bit behind where it should be with a new coach and newfound success. It takes a few weeks to adjust.

Merry Christmas to all!

Ray Stefani

Making Sense of Congested Fixtures
 

Several times last season, I mentioned startling outcomes that happened when teams played matches that did not involve a week’s rest. These are the “congested fixtures”. There are two types of those pesky fixtures. First, a team could have had the normal rest before a match but the next match is to be played in 3 or 4 days. Wanting to play smart, the players may pace themselves to avoid injury and fatigue, especially considering that many players on top teams also play for country and in cup matches. The second case is where players take the pitch following a match played just 3 or 4 days before. Then, the players are more fatigued than usual. Generally, anything that disrupts the pattern of play by a strong team can be expected to aid a weaker team.

I went back to my 2017-2018 predictions. I had calculated bets for 14 rounds with congested fixtures and 16 rounds with normal rest. I found that there was a profit in only 21% of the rounds with congested fixtures, compared to a profit in 62% of the rounds played with normal pacing. The odd results generally happened during congested fixtures. For the 19 rounds so far this season, I had time to apply my betting methods to 17. Of the five with congested fixtures, betting to win provided profit in 20% (almost the same as 21% for last season). For the 12 rounds played with normal pacing, using bets to win, there was a profit in 58% of the rounds (almost the same as 62% for last season).

Now, get this: last week during round 18, I had mentioned how odd it was for Man City to lose to Crystal Place, when Crystal Palace supporters cashed decimal odds of 21. In round 19, Man City lost for the third time this season, this time to Leicester. My point is that all three losses came during congested fixtures. With normal pacing, Man City were undefeated.

Because of the largely unpredictable results during congested fixtures, keeping your money in your pocket for those matches may be your best “bet”.

EPL Round 20
 

Check out my comments about betting during congested fixtures. Rounds 20 and 21 both leave players with little rest and are congested fixtures. Later, rounds 24, 25, 27 and 28 will have congested fixtures.

Get ready for new years!

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 21
 

Last season, I demonstrated the unpredictability of congested fixtures by pointing out that over several weeks of those fixtures, a bettor could make a profit by following the preposterous strategy of betting on a draw in every match. That led to suggesting a system to take the risk out of draws by splitting bets between draws and wins. This season, here is an equally preposterous strategy. There were so many unexpected upsets during the congested fixtures of rounds 18, 19 and 20, that a bet on every underdog would have made a profit of 220% (round 18), 40% (round 19) and 70% (round 20). Round 21 starts tomorrow. It seems that the best strategy for congested fixtures is to stay away from betting those rounds (which also means you do not have to split bets between draws and wins on normally-spaced fixtures).

I suppose you could tinker with some kind of contrarian strategy for congested fixtures.

Liverpool is now ahead of Man City in my rating systems. I think the rest of the season will be a battle between those two.

Happy New Year to all.

Ray Stefani