Betfair Billionaire
 

Hi all, it's often said that Betfair SP is the closest thing to a horse's true chances of winning and you can't make money backing or laying at SP because of commission.
I've been on a long journey of machine learning, data scraping and coding.
Built a custom bot which backs horses when the true chance is overestimated by Betfair users. The wisdom of the crowd is quite wrong by 14.20% POT over 394,388 horses bet on.
The plan is to now put $2,000 into my Betfair account, betting $2.00 per horse that my bot suggests on UK, IRE, AUS, USA and RSA races.
When my bank reaches $3,000, I'll bet $3.00 per horse and so on.
I'll take out any extra to pay myself for the software and VPS.
So, if my bank reaches $4,040.00 for example, I'll withdraw the $40.00 leaving $4,000 and betting $4.00 per horse.
Note: I will sometimes be betting on multiple horses in a race, therefore the low stakes as I need variance to play out.
The bot and my strategy will not be shared nor sold for any amount of money, I've worked too hard on this.
With that being said, I'm going to see just how much money I can pull out of the betting exchange, backing these anomalies at Betfair SP.
I'll be starting next week and will try to post daily profit and losses. 14.20% POT fully automated is not to be sneezed at ;) I'll try and post screenshots of the profit when I can.

confused
 

Hi Chrome, I respect your ideas, but what I'm confused about is : as I understand it the minimum bet on Betfair is $5, how do you get around that?

Yes, my weary mistake, I'll be betting $5.00 with a $2,000 bank and not increasing stakes until I hit above $5,000.
So for $5,400, I'll take out the $400 for myself and leave it until it hits $6,000.
Probably optimistic, but I'm very confident in my back testing, as I used actual Betfair SP prices rather than the one's supplied. I've also included commission deductions in the above post.

clarity
 

Thanks Chrome, I thought I was missing something as several other posters have eluded to lay bets which as I understand it are not possible because of minimum bet rules?

I hope to be proved wrong, as if I am laying a 1000-1 shot, I'm OK with like say 10cents, but definitely not with $5??

PP,

You can lay at liability on the exchange. So you can lay aq $1000 shot at $30.00 minimum. This means you can only lose $30 and you would win 3c.

Hope that helps.

Good Luck CP. Keeps us updated.

BSP is very efficient overall but inefficient race to race. There are definitely spots to pick and make money.

If you are doing this in an automated way reach out to automation@betfair.com.au and check out their website: https://betfair-datascientists.github.io/

This is the betfair automation team and they can help you with things such as minimum bet sizes, automation of bets and data. Ask for access (its free) into the discord group as that is where the real gold is.

good Luck and keep us posted.

BF
 

Thanks UB, I didn't know that, I don't use BF (Lay) very much, in fact I probably would have done if I'd known that.

I just presumed the $5 minimum applied either way.

Thanks UB,
Don't know how to do discord, and don't really have the time, but I have used the github to build my bot. Currently in testing mode, and ironing out any bugs. There are actually more spots to pick inefficiencies than "they" would have you believe!
e.g if a horse's true chances are $2.00, the bookies might be only offering $1.80 or $1.75, but Betfair SP can be $2.20 or $2.10, that's where the market has overestimated the horse's chances. It doesn't happen every time but often enough to make a healthy profit after commission. And I can find anomalies in every single race with my software.

Really looking forward to the results here, seems like a real go-er

A good example was Bathurst Harness R7 Winner Mac Bon.
Best tote was $1.50, Betfair SP was $1.92, so 28% better odds than Best Tote.

The forum has been offline, so here are the stats since last Tuesday. All results are net of commission charges.

Starting bank $2,000.00

25th Mar +84.68 units
26th Mar +92.63 units
27th Mar +147.56 units
28th Mar +188.19 units
29th Mar +155.47 units
30th Mar +135.08 units
31st Mar +72.57 units
1st April +97.07 units

973.25 units total profit x $5.00=$4,866.25
New balance $6,866.25

Great work . Those are sensational profits.

Thanks UB, just waiting for a bad day.
I'm turning over a lot of money betting on Uk Ire Rsa Usa and Aus races and trots every day.

2nd Apr +86.87 units
3rd Apr +56.10 units

142.97 Units profit
1,119.35 Total Units profit

1,119.35 units total profit x $5.00=$5,596.75
New balance $7,596.75

For those interested, there have been 7,288 bets, so my profit on turnover is 15.36% after commission.

4th Apr +23.13 Units
5th Apr +100.03 Units

123.16 Units profit
1,316.51 Total Units profit

1316.51 x $5.00 = $6,582.55
New balance $8,582.55

4th Apr +23.13 Units
5th Apr +100.03 Units

123.16 Units profit
1,316.51 Total Units profit

1,316.51 x $5.00 = $6,582.55
New balance $8,582.55

Are you already in the Betfair VIP tier ? If not you should be in no time ( just had a thought this depends on which state you live in as some states do not allow it )

Not yet UB, I live in Victoria.
The biggest rort are the Expert Fees (Premium Charges) where they take up to 40% of your winnings. They say that only 0.05% of customers have to pay it, I find that very difficult to believe!

Its far better and fairer than the old Premium Charge.

The expert fee isn't actually a problem. I do get assessed against it every week at the 40% level. To do that you need to be winning $200,000 Aussie dollars over 52 weeks.. Trust me there is less than 0.5% hitting that level and paying. I will also guarantee that if you are smart enough to get to that level you are smart enough to not have to pay the Expert Fee. You should never be paying the expert fee.

I like the Expert Fee setup as I can work around it, I occasionally get hit by it when I am not paying attention, but mostly I don't have to care about it.

There are games within the games when you start winning consistently that can produce a better edge and profit.

5th Apr +144.89 Units
6th Apr +102.25 Units

247.14 Units profit
1,563.65 Total Units profit

1,563.65 x $5.00 = $7,818.25
New balance $9,818.25

I messed up the dates on my previous post, but anyway, it's taken a massive dive the wrong way, so I've had to pull the pin temporarily.
7th Apr +12.25 Units
8th Apr +4.22 Units
9th Apr -97.65 Units
10th Apr -127.44 Units
11th Apr -63.64 Units
12th Apr -128.27 Units
400.53 Units loss
1,163.12 Total Units profit

1,163.12 x $5.00 = $5,815.60
New balance $7,815.60

Damn, was looking so good there the first few days. Variance sucks but Im sure it will turn around this week.

Good Luck CP.

Thanks UB, but I've pulled the pin on it temporarily.
Here's what would have happened if I kept going...

13th Apr -87.32 Units
14th Apr -29.05 Units

Loss -116.37 Units

15th April -49.62
16th April -41.46

-91.08 Units Loss

17th April -41.88
18th April - 0.89

-42.77 Units Loss

19th April -103.80
20th April -153.34

-257.14 Units Loss

After such a good start its gone the wrong way :(

variance?
 

We all know about the curse of "variance" but isn't it weird how these ideas seem to be so good at first , and then the legs fall off? every time! I've only got one place plan that has stood the test of time, and that's after hundreds of promising ideas that all bit the dust. BUT, the profits are minimal and when I tried to increase stakes it fell into a hole, like it seems that when my stakes increased even to a meagre $500 the dividends were affected detrimentally.?

It sure has :(

Yes, it's not just variance!
Are you betting on the TAB, bookmakers, or Betfair?

21st Apr -81.76
22nd Apr -133.85

-215.61 Units Loss

Boy I'm glad I stopped when I did!

booger
 

Hey Chrome sorry to hear that, I really thought you'd cracked it there, but unfortunately it also seems very familiar??

23rd Apr +0.23
24th Apr -58.07
25th Apr -118.72

-176.56 Units Loss

I hope CP you keep going recording this, it would be interesting to see how this plays out over 12 months or the number of races you pre tested before going live. It looked really good at the start. It gave me some hope of the years of my failures that there might be successful way I just hadn’t found yet.

26th Apr -102.29
27th Apr -67.98

-170.27 Units Loss

Too early to make a call. You need a few months before making any decision.

28th Apr -116.19
29th Apr -54.32
30th Apr -27.53
1st May -94.76
2nd May -15.73
3rd May -117.63

-426.16 Units Loss

I think that says it all, the losses are just too consistent and frequent to keep posting. I will be posting something completely different though, when I get around to it and the forum isn't so buggy. For those interested the loss on turnover is 8.23%