Profiting from the Crowd
 

I'm a big fan of the wisdom of the crowd and have been able to profit from it in a number of punting and non-punting ways. I've just stumbled upon this short YouTube video that in a roundabout way (via jelly beans) shows why the punting public tends to get it pretty right.

http://youtu.be/982E49KAMyw

I've mentioned this book a few times but it's worth mentioning again. If you think outside your punting square there's some very useful leads contained within.

http://www.amazon.com/The-Wisdom-Cr...i/dp/0385721706

Enjoy :)

Interesting youtube video there Angry Pixie. So I guess your saying that if you found as many tipsters as you could lay your hands on, and take the "average selection", you "should" be ahead.

Paul

If you could aggregate their selections somehow that would be one thing you could do. I would be looking more at things that put a numerical figure on the selections though. ;)

You could do a 3,2,1 format for their tips then come up with a total than create a price, similar to my Consensus ratings.

Lets start a list and see how many we can come up with, have to be aware some tipsters use the same service to get the tips so will always be the same.

must have at least 3 selections most of the time.

Radio Tab
Guest Tipster

Thanks Angry for that most informative link.

But it raises the question...
Can it pick a little vinner .

The answer is yes

I ran my data base through a number of things & this is what I came up with.

By targeting 5 tipsters exactly.

Target their top selection.

If we to only bet those that where tipped 3 times exactly on top .

These indeed had a 30% SR ,the same as favourites , but the difference was, that they did not always start as race favourite.

It amazingly produced a level stakes profit of +10% POT


Go figure.

Evening Pixie

Yes, in my experience you are correct on this, although it's a bit like 'fuzzy logic' to apply.

I have found that looking for 2-3 different 'signals' or indicators to support a certain selection can significantly strengthen the case to back it. A bit like a set up for a trade.

Also similar to one of the fundamental principles of auditing (if my 1980s memory serves me correct) ie collect information from different sources to evidence an event - if the data gathered collectively points to the same or a similar version of events, you are probably looking at a 'truth'.

So - not a precise science, but a mechanism to support an assumption or conclusion without needing to examine all the records or data = every occurrence of the event.

Find the right 'signals' in the right races and the winners seem to come a little easier, albeit with a lower average DIV it seems.


LG

I also noticed they now have some paper form guides on the NSW and VIC tab websites, not sure how often they have this but it does provide some options.

Interesting statistic Bhagwan.

DO you have the equivalent numbers for where Top Selection has been picked 2 times across the 5 'wise men'?

From what I can see, it yields a similar result to a single star bet ie it flops most of the time and is a good candidate for taking out of your top chances, when it comes to finding a winner*

If I only I had your data engine to churn out these gems.


Cheers LG

* except where Shelley Hancox has tipped it but then again, she probably doesn't qualify as a wise man. We can be thankful for that!

This is more what I was thinking. ;)

Here are the "crowd ratings" for todays Flemington quaddie races. Bit quick and dirty. Three well known, easy to obtain sources. Not much into ratings, so you guys can work out the prices. :)

FLEM Race 5
1 66
2 64
3 ---
4 ---
5 100
6 81
7 75
8 87
9 63
10 73
11 60
12 74
13 92
14 64

FLEM Race 6
1 100
2 80
3 90
4 86
5 82
6 71
7 69
8 70
9 60
10 79
11 80
12 76
13 67
14 74
15 83
16 71

FLEM RACE 7
1 81
2 95
3 ---
4 90
5 ---
6 91
7 100
8 99
9 ---
10 ---
11 ---
12 78
13 77
14 77
15 87
16 60

FLEM RACE 8
1 69
2 87
3 100
4 75
5 100
6 63
7 99
8 ---
9 60
10 79
11 93
12 100