Ratings2Win Profitable Favourites - Is it possible?
 

There is always a debate that is raging somewhere in the world right now on this topic.

Can you make money from betting favourites?

Most professional punters do just that. And for good reason.

• There is scope to bet decent money across many agencies without affecting the price as much as a decent go would be on a long shot.
• Market reaction or lack off is easier to recognize with the liquidity
• Market is the most correct barometer of horses chances

There are some big negatives as well.

• Once the fave is known the price generally slides
• You have to sit there all day and watch, with races 5 min or even less apart that can be really bad for your kidneys! Once you identify a favorite then you have to execute the bet in all that short time.

One way to improve your chances is to go through all the races and eliminate all the horses that shouldn’t be favourites. That will leave you with a short list that is manageable. You then concentrate on that list.

The answer is that YES it can be done, You will need to run some sort of software or manual method to eliminate those selections that are unsuitable and you should be left with a few good horses every day! Waiting for these pre-selected bets is much easier to manage and bet then just a plain list of all horses.

Of course the issue is; what do you use to qualify the selections? Well, I would say that RATINGS coupled with a few select form filters are your best chances. There is a good reason to use ratings, firstly they qualify the horse’s chance against all others in a race and secondly they are hopefully a little unique and not available to everyone under the sun like the general form is.
Form is important and when used properly can eliminate horses that would otherwise qualify especially for extreme situations. EG horse rising 10kg in weight or something like that, while this may or may not be a factor I would suggest that you research such issues and make your form rules accordingly.

Before I get shouted down, I can offer some proof across several thousand selections over the last 3+ years. And I have attached the spreadsheet to this post. The prices are based on better of NSW/SP.

What’s more we have been giving away the selections for FREE, (some of you already visit for them) live each morning for the last 5 months. I thought that it would be great to post the selections here and see how it goes against the dreaded forum curse for a few months.

So far in the live period of 5 months we have
Selections 419 (just under 3 per DAY)
Strike rate 47.5%
- Profit on turnover +3.34% NSW TOTE ONLY using flat bet with a Maximum bank risk of only 20.5%
- Profit on turnover +6.39% ISP (average closing fixed price available on the internet) using flat bet with a Maximum bank risk of only 18.5%
- Profit on turnover +8.47% NSW/SP using flat bet with a Maximum bank risk of only 16%
- Profit on turnover +11.39% BestTote/SP/ISP using flat bet with a Maximum bank risk of only 16%, (BestTote/SP/ISP is what we consider the best case scenario, this could be achievable for those many that use Betfair and fixed odds and best of best and similar products to improve the return)

For those that want to bet proportional, then a real scenario is $5000 bank, 4% takeout, profit $4136 or 7.56% POT just at NSW/SP with Maximum bank risk at 27%. Nice and safe!

So is it possible? Here you have it, it seems it’s not only possible; it’s sustainable and above all REALISTIC with not only the possible bet size you can have but more importantly based on a solid sample of several thousand selections!


These Selections were created with Ratings2Win Axis software using a single system.

To use these selections only bet when they are SP favourite and if the tracks are Good or Dead. If you use other then SP to determine the favourite then your results may vary but should be about the same in the long run!

R2W FREE SELECTIONS
(Best results - Only G/D tracks + Selections are SP fave.)

26/05/2013 - R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY
13:00 STRAT 2 1 Finniss Power
13:05 CRANB 5 4 Koritsi Mou
13:45 DEVS 4 2 Vedo
14:10 STRAT 4 8 Terrapinna
16:28 CASTE 8 1 Emdee

2 tremendous posts Michal. Thank you for these.

Cheers LG

great post. This forum is starting to come back alive with some really good information.

Quick Note
 

I should have noted that the spreadsheet contains in excess of 2600 selections with a winning strike rate of 46.4% and POT of 4.56% based on NSW/SP.

Just like to make an observation & I am not offering an opinion on the above one way or another -

The first & foremost issue I consider when deciding on an punting approach is whether or not it is profitable over time, & while the results detailed in the spreadsheet do show a profit, they also show a break even period of about 2 years, chart attached.

Was there a profit, am i missing something, personally i would avoid top favourites the POT just isn't high enough unless you are your turnover is much higher that the average punter.

Stugots,

Thanks for the graph and your comments.

Kiwi, all 4 years in the sample show profit, but as Stugots pointed out the middle 2 were thin.
2010 11.80%
2011 0.38%,
2012 1.81%
2013 8.5% (With May nearly over those figures are also out of date (we update once at the end of the month)

A couple of things are worth a mention in regards to Stugots comment;

• If someone started using the system at any time during it’s test they would have never gone astray or even close, that by itself is quite a positive factor. The end is always in profit from where ever you would have started!

• The divs used are easily improved upon, so a reasonable POT could have been easily achieved above that which is shown by someone using just a little initiative.

• The system is a bulk method, there are many sub-systems that could be produced from it that would have greatly improved the performance (46.4% is a fantastic starting point!!!) It’s not something that we want to do but the option is certainly there.

Something else that is also worth commenting on; for us at R2W punting is about a long term successful venture, the reality is that wins come in spits and spats and not in a form of a weekly scheduled income.

I realise that this statement will bring a foray of those that make regular money and all that. The issue is perception vs reality. The reality is that there will always be variance which means that NO-ONE makes a steady weekly income from punting that is always the same. They make income and win but if it’s to be properly examined you will find that they win but not in a steady stream. I’m not saying it’s not possible as anything is possible in this game but for us the mere mortals the reality is, that variance in the results means you’ll get good-and-bad weeks, months and even years!

The truth is that most punters are unable or unwilling to accept variance or just plain don’t even know what result variance is and how to measure it. People still think that their system/method has a mathematical dispensation and variance doesn’t apply to them, that is, until they run smack into it! However they will usually call this event bad luck or forum curse or the punting gods being against them and move on without learning a thing. Things like results variance, bank risk and their threshold and good bank management. The sad fact is that their testing and research usually involves a few dozen to a few hundred selections which is way too small a sample and then they wonder why their system/method fails.

That brings me to a point, how many punters would have started with this system and discarded it as a no good thing? Unfortunately judging from the many posts on many forums majority of those that try to make a profit from the punt would have been on to the ‘next best thing’ the moment that the results would have became uncomfortable. How many have thrown out the ‘grail’ they are searching for because they can’t discipline themselves and apply the most important factor to their punting ; CONSISTENCY! Actually, that is not quite true, they are consistently inconsistent.

Hopefully what you’ll learn from our contributions to this forum is not only that we have a great range of products but that we are realistic and transparent in what and how we present our results across everything that we do. Something that this industry is NOT known for! This includes a realistic approach to punting which is based on proven, professional and factual findings.

Too true Michal.

Agree with most of what you say Michal - 'consistency' is one of the many keys required to squeeze a $ out of this game.