Synthetic tracks
 

Hi Team,

With the winter wet kicking in, I thought I'd muster up some comment on Synthetic tracks and in particular:

- Are ratings as effective?
- Are certain types of horses advantaged/disadvantaged?
- Can you tell if a horse is going to handle it?

So far in my own experience, I've generally stayed away unless a horse has shown a real liking for the synthetic surface. However going through my ratings there doesn't seem to be a great difference in my results on the synthetic tracks.

Would love to hear feedback/comments.

This aroused my interest so I did a test on our ratings.
For what its worth:
Over all the performance of our top pick is 26.8% since 2010.
Synthetic tracks have an SR of 28.6% for the same period.

Obviously the smaller sample of 2900 races vs 80,000 may see this normalized with a greater sample.

Interesting findings Michal,

Did that correlate to you top 4 also?

Actually Yes I only have results for the top 3 and its the same

Top 3 over all strike rate 58.8%
Top 3 synthetic 60.2%

like I said small sample , and I would think that it will regress to the normal over time but at least thus far there is no difference in predictive ability