Why system betting beats punting-long term
 

We have all had amazing runs punting at the races. Pick up the form guide and the winners seem to 'jump off the page!' Confidence is a wonderful thing.

On the other hand during a bad run of punting, one almost dreads looking at the fields. Instead of a horse jumping off the page, all you see is a maize of horses, appearing almost like the squares on a blank lotto form, with any donkey likely to salute.

System betting, on the other hand, takes away the 'human frailty' element of betting. There is a methodical resume to go through before a horse is selected, and this resume never changes, irrespective of the financial situation. Naturally I am talking about systems using level stakes betting each week.

However for this to occur one must have total confidence in the system. This is where the research is required, and importantly with any research, be totally honest with yourself. Do not fudge the figures in any way to increase your confidence, just do more research, if that is required.

Don't be a smart alec and go on a racing forum and gloat (like I did) about your system. Apart from Murphy's law that often takes you out; you also have that 'human frailty' thing come back into play. That happened with an old bloke like me who should have known better.

As a result I am going back to my professional ways and not posting my tips here. Its then just a contest between me and the bookies, and not a third party who I am trying to impress.

I'll still go in the tipping contest here and as my system rarely picks horses over 6/1 so I can have a punt with no chance of losing!

Enjoyed everyone of your posts davo, and I cannot agree more about the above snippet.
It be way cool to have simple light convos after the event on our respective system's result/failures etc.

My system of things, there is not much to say as the method picks them in such a way I cannot post selections prior. There ain't much to pick these days, everyone has a opinionated tip and there goes the Value.
BTW, the word here , Value, ( grin ) has been a long drawwwnnnn out topic.
But your opinion may settle some old scores, or start new ones!
Is it "value" or "Value", or is 15/1 better than 6/1, or is 6/1 better than 15/1

My version of Value, is to Target for a 25 Unit profit where where the Cost of the bet does not exceed that Target, ( 100% ~Variable). This also applies to Hedged bets and depending on Price, my statistics usually work better with 1-3 runners.
4 runners and you start to blow out the Value concept within the price range of the most probable, where it becomes a no-bet due the Cost exceeding the Target, unless of course you increase the allowance to 30 Units to make 25 Unit Profit.

We are allowed 7 minutes to edit our posts, or contact the admin.
I could not be bothered, so I posted it again, edited.




Enjoyed everyone of your posts davo, and I cannot agree more about the above snippet.
It be way cool to have simple light convos after the event on our respective system's result/failures etc.

My system of things, there is not much to say as the method picks them in such a way I cannot post selections prior. There ain't much to pick these days, everyone has a opinionated tip and there goes the Value.
BTW, the word here , Value, ( grin ) has been a long drawwwnnnn out topic.
But your opinion may settle some old scores, or start new ones!
Is it "value" or "Value", or is 15/1 better than 6/1, or is 6/1 better than 15/1

My version of Value, is to Target for a 25 Unit profit where where the Cost of the bet does not exceed that Target, ( 100% ~Variable -). This also applies to Hedged bets and depending on Price, my statistics usually work better with 1-3 runners.
4 runners and you start to blow out the Value concept within the price range where the most probable may sometimes exist,and where it becomes a no-bet due the Cost exceeding the Target, unless of course you increase the allowance to 30 Units to make 25 Unit Profit, (100% +).

Thanks a million Puntz. You've made my day!

You're target/value idea is the only way to go in my opinion. However I think if a horse is blowing from say 3/1 fav to 6/1 I am extremely worried if I am on that horse. Similarly a 6/1 horse blowing to 10/1 has the nerves tingling. On the other hand if a horse opens at 6/1 and comes in to 3/1 late, I don't think about it costing me $300 but rather, that winning feeling is increased immeasurably.

I am also much more confident if a horse in my system opens at a better price than I rated and doesn't move.

I go for max 2 bets at present (past 5 years) but I did dabble with up to 4 over previous years. You obviously have a lot more hits than if you pick one or two. A good selection method can show huge profits for months but when you have that run of roughies winning it doesn't take long to wipe out the profits.

I also went around 5 years back in the nineties where my rules were much looser and I had selections in up to 10 races out of the 32 or so.(betting in 4 states). Again I had some unbelievable runs, some up to 18 months. With 10 races it usually meant at least 20 bets and that's fine during the good times. However that bad run hit again and wiped me out!

It was then very difficult to tighten up the rules as it often meant eliminating past winners that paid great dividends. However that's what I did, and there were tears of blood as I went back through my form-guides and put a line through many10/1 winners that were no longer in my system.

Cheer mate and thanks again.

One HAS to have an edge that is unique and can escape the reflection from prices or form data.

Old Time Bookie Quote.

"Give me a man with a system.In the end he will have his system but I will have his money".

One of the rules of betting that I observe...never bet with 'scared' money...if you cannot afford to lose the bank you are playing with, do not bet....if you can afford to lose, be fearless and trust your system.

Even better...

If you start betting like a mug(e.g. chasing losses), pull the plug .

My version in practice means I withdraw the remaining funds from the account into savings a/c and go spend it on something in the real world. Works better than a fry up in the morning, I can tell you i..e sober up

LG

And never accept anythig under $4 -especially applies if track dead- slow or heavy.(And dead track is NOT dry.)

Give me a man with a system. In the end he will have his system but we will have his money Or close his account so he cant get ours.
(the corporate bookie variation)