RaceCensus - Value Favourites
 

One of the systems included with the database is called Value Favourites.

These are the results so far this year:

01/01/2014-15/04/2014

Races Bet: 88
Races Won: 37
S.R./Race: 42.0%
Outlay($): 88.00
Return : 96.20
$ Profit : 8.20
% P.O.T. : 9.3%

We're beating the TAB takeout by 9.30% and this isn't even utlilising Best Tote or Betfair ;)

and a nice strike rate too :)

I run a similar system CP that looks at the PP favourite that also ends up the NSWTAB favourite, I only run it on Saturday Metro meetings but since the start of 2012 it has given me just under 300 selections for a 47% S/R and 31% POT.

However, as it is a system based around the favourite it is very hard to automate since sometimes the favourite isn't absolutely known until after the start so there are races where I simply can't bet because the 1st and 2nd favourite are just too close together. Or the other issue is I see a 3rd or 4th favourite being heavily backed late that ends up running favourite, I can't bet in these races either since the favourite will likely have changed from the time I place the bet.

Favourite systems can be tough to operate but they can be very rewarding, CP is your system based on certain TAB or Betfair or official SP?

Based on NSW TAB favourite, average win dividend $2.60.
I check fixed odds and Betfair to be sure when it's close.

I had a similar problem but converted to the on course opening fav.

When there were 2 or more equal opening favs I simply didn't bet.

The few % in strike/rate I missed out on as the opening fav drifted & ran 2nd-3rd fav etc was compensated by the better odds.

This gave me a chance to hunt around for the best odds knowing my selection as soon as the prices came up.

Cheers.

I have the same problem at Mattio - but I will have a look at Betfair (I already look at fixed odds). Just a recent race, I bet on the favourite, but when the race was running, he became 3rd favourite! In this case, the horse won anyway which was great - but according to the plan, I shouldn't have bet on him...

VALUE FAVOURITES 01/01/2014-19/04/2014
WIN
Races Bet: 97
Races Won: 41
S.R./Race: 42.30%
Outlay($): $97.00
Return : $109.10
$ Profit : $12.10
% P.O.T. : 12.50%

NSW TAB Dividend returns.

[QUOTE=mattio]I run a similar system CP that looks at the PP favorite that also ends up the NSWTAB favourite, I only run it on Saturday Metro meetings but since the start of 2012 it has given me just under 300 selections for a 47% S/R and 31% POT.

Excellent stuff, can I ask what do you use as your initial PP fav prices?, eg. Tab Form, SMH, etc etc

would it too much to ask for the system rules for the value favourites system.

I'm thinking that you would need to purchase CP's RaceCensus Database.