A Staking Question?
 

Hi Paul ,
With staking to take 4 % of a bank when would one consider a rise in the stake.

i.e

A/When the Bank doubles
Or
B/ Each new High in the Bank.

Cheers
darky

Hi Darky,

That's a great question!

In simplest form the answer is using one of 3 scenarios:

1; Up and down, this is where you bets are calculated using the 4% (to take out) of your current bank. Meaning if you are winning your bets are up and if you are loosing your bets slowly decrease. This method will result in the smallest growth but it is the safest model.

2; Just Up, where your bets are calculated based on 4% (to take out) of the highest bank. This will result in a more rapid movement either up or down but has more risk; obviously!

The 2 scenarios are both using the current bank (of sorts). If you are using percentage of the bank, using up and down or just up the thing is your RISK is always the same proportionally to your bank from the first bet you have to the last bet you have. Its ALWAYS 4% (to take out) so there is no need to wait to build the bank before increasing the bet size (percentage of a bank). So say betting 4% (to take out) of a 10,000 bank is the same proportionally as betting 4% (to take out) of a 1,000 bank and so on only the actual value of the bet changes due to the bank size.

Finally,

3; Never, that is each bet is obviously calculated to take out the 4% of A bank and that is where it will stay. Mind you this is likely to be the end of the process of increasing the bet size anyway, because at some stage you will have reached one of the following a practical limits

a\ of what you can get set at
b\or your own comfort zone threshold.

These are very real, as those of us that operate withing the realities of betting know that at one stage or another you will find it hard to get set, especially if you are winning. Those that look at a $1 system test result and dream of betting $10,000 are probably in for a shock! It gets remarkably harder to get a good div once you exceed the triple digits and its a skill that needs to be learned on top of everything else. Why ? Because no one really wants to be your cash cow! :)
And then there is the punters own threshold, where the bet size just gets too hairy to handle the losses and so the bet size remains constant and comfortable to handle.

Hope this helps

I should mention for those that may wish to simulate (and find) the best set up of betting percentages and methods can use the Axis Betting Analyser to run the many various options to come up with the best tailored method possible and see the bank risks, runs of outs, draw-down, break down into bet blocks, highest and lowest dividends and other data to make selecting the best betting setup a breeze!

Michal

Thank you Michal.
Psychological comfort is the main aim for me.
I guess when the take out per race starts to feel uncomfortable I will then drop back a notch.
I,m still well within my comfortable range at $400 per race .

Thank you for taking the time to answer.
I really appreciate it.
Cheers
darky

It should be Darky. While I don't think its hard to find a profitable method these days with the power of computing and databases most punters still fail. Psychology has everything to do with success, far more then a successful system/method!

Bankroll management, consistent application and realistic expectation are key, and this can only happen when the punter is comfortable with the bank and bet sizes, oddly enough on both sides of the spectrum. If a bank is too small, punters generally just don't have any respect for it and their method. If its too big, punters generally just fold at the sign of a first major bank draw-down because they cant handle it.

But you already know this, I just wrote it for the benefit of others that may read this.

Great advice.
Thank you.

One approach could be to re-adjust their bet up or down after every 6 bets.

Psychologically, it breaks things down to more digestible chunks of risk & reward & keeps the bank in check within the realms of reality,it helps keep one emotionally in check and if your going to seriously punt, it's the most important thing of all.