What's a better Bet?
 

If you had a choice between and odd-on sports bet, between two teams, or an odds-on favourite in an 8 horse field of gallopers, which would be the better or safer Bet? The one with the highest predictability of an outcome, despite what the price says?

In the horse race the favourite's got to get in front of 7 other horses in running. In the horse race the favourites probably carrying more dead weight, as it's a handicap. The horse favourite is competing against 7 other 'teams' as it were. There's probably a good argument for Backing the horse too, or is there?

I would say that if they were exactly the same odds, they will have exactly the same chance.

The horse has 7 others running, might miss the jump, might break down, could have bad luck in running or find a smokey that's fitter / or an up and comer.

A soccer match can also be unpredictable, there might be an injury to a star player or two players get red carded, or they just fumble the whole thing. Seen heaps of this happen.

When you consider gallops, trots, uk jumpers, teams, and individual players, the bookies adjust the odds to the true chance plus vig.
Personally, I think a $1.10 chance is the same everywhere.
The stats would seem to indicate so, except "in running" :D

Mmmmmh?

I agree with you CP about all the things that could go wrong for either favourite, none of which can really be factored in. Your reference to the bookies assessing the price though, has me curious. If there were two football teams that had already had a few games including a game against each other this season, I reckon you could price the teams fairly accurately. A different story for the horses though given it might be horses that have never raced against each other before, others stepping down in class, others coming up, others returning from a spell.....a myriad of complex algorithms.

The jury's out, but I just reckon that an odds-on team has probably better data to support it's price in some circumstances? If you say that they have the same historical strike rate relative to price though, then the bookies are good at what they do then, hey?

Yes, because the public will overall predict the same closing price and adjust for bookie errors and omissions. There is always someone with enough money to adjust for a horse with potential or a horse with a problem....overall that is.
Those who win, usually know something or see something out of line and take advantage, or have an edge of course.