Here is another maxim I have difficulty with. My query is, how can we quantify what is the true odds of a horse in a race is.

Let's say that we are in the in, and we know our horse is going well, this is the race. we have the right jockey ( we think ) the price is right and the Bank Manager gives us his blessing.

But, in this race, this same senario is being played out in possibly up to six to eight stables in a fourteen horse or so field.

Their is only one winner. I am firming in my thinking that if on form only two horses should win, but I expect their are at least four others that might, then taking under the odds might well be close to $6 or $7 dollars otherwise we are kidding ourselves.

If others disagree, I would like to hear the arguments against. At the moment that is my view, mind you, next week it might change.

Pete