5yo B Horse

Frankel (GB) - Heat Haze (GB) [By Green Desert (USA)]

17s: 4-5-4

Mirage Dancer was one of the 5 shortlisted by Aspro's system but was a rung below those picked per 'the system' here. He lost two points from his tally: he wasn't under $16 in his last race - he was exactly $16; and he isn't less <= $21 in the Melbourne Cup. Those two factors can be quite broad, I think it was Rostropovich last year that was discounted on account of starting at $31 in the Cox Plate: it wasn't his fault he was up against Winx though! If you can determine that the preceding race wasn't typical or that the market had misread the actual chance, then you could argue about letting that one slide.

And the starting price is a nice filter, but 22.4% of those who finished in the first 4 this century had a starting price > $21. (22.8% for top 3; 26.3% for top 2; 10.5% for first). ...plus you feel smarter if you were to pick the runner contrary to market expectation.

In the Caulfield Cup, among eventual Melbourne Cup starters, both Mirage Dancer and Sound appeared to perform contrary to the market expectation. The former finished a 1.2L 3rd, with the next highest odds-finisher (Hartnell) two lengths back in 7th. Mirage Dancer finished in front of 5 other horses who were at lower odds.

I'm pretty sure the market had him wrong. Best Solution won the Caulfield Cup in 2018; who'd he beat by 0.5L in July of that year at equal weights? Mirage Dancer. Who'd Best Solution beat by a neck in his next race? Sound. The following race Best Solution beat Defoe by a neck and Defoe has been one of the good formlines of this season, during which Mirage Dancer also ran well against him.

Mirage Dancer's run against Defoe was in the Hardwicke Stakes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZ4ZQzDeuhg. He held on well for third and also beat Southern France by 7L.

Next up was the Princess of Wales's Tattersalls Stakes, where he finished second to Communique: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bA0HykJTMUc. That horse would go on to contest German Group 1's, including finished ahead of Old Persian in his next.

His final UK race was in the Glorious Stakes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hESsYO5tajo, where he finished 2nd again (and 12 lengths ahead of Prince Of Arran). The winner Desert Encounter won his next two races in England (Group 3s) and then won a Group 1 in Canada.

From there it was off to Australia and into the care of Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young. His first start for them was the Caulfield Cup: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esSOa1T_6M4. Both Mer De Glace and Vow And Declare came from the rear, whereas Mirage Dancer was midfield or slightly better. When the pressure came on, there was a line of horses in the way and he had to wait for a run. He was brushed with 200m to go and had to balance up again before he sprinted on well. Mer De Glace will carry 1kg more in the Cup following his weight penalty, whereas everyone else was at their Cup weight.

There were a couple who looked to have slightly more finishing speed than he did, but his first up stats are mixed so he may have needed the run. He has a good record second up.

2400m is the furthest he's run and it's where he has the bulk of his wins (3) and placings (6) come from (10 starts): though the bulk of those are in small fields. His Dosage Profile is (2-6-15-7-0), with DI 1.07 and CD 0.1; that looks like he should be fine over the Cup distance. His Conduit Mare Profile is (4-7-3-12-7) with Speed 11, Stamina 19, Index 0.62 and Triads (14-22-22). That looks quite similar to Prince Of Arran's profile, with slightly more Stamina and a tad less Speed.

I don't reckon he'll win but I think he's a good shot at getting a place. At $34 Win Odds he'd also surely be a half-decent price to finish top 10, for which I think he's a shoe-in.