16th November 2013, 11:33 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 696
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by UselessBettor
well it comes down to what you want? I want more selections, higher turnover.
This results in consistency. For example if I have 10 bets a day and have a 50% strike rate there is going to be days of 5 winners, 3 winners, 7 winners, etc. Which results in huge swings on a daily basis. This could range from 0% - 100%.
But if I have 1000 selections in a day then I am more then likely going to get results in the range of 450-550 (45% - 55%) and this is what I am looking for. I will get days every so often of 350 - 400 and I will lose. Losing is part of gambling. But more selections in a day usually mean more consistency in daily returns.
To get more selections you have to give up POT. But a profit of 5% on 100 selections is the same as 1% on 500 selections. But I have far more confidence in the 500 selections then the 100 selections.
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to follow on-
Generally speaking if you look at long term results of even money chances, intuitively one thinks that they get closer and closer to "equipartition" as the number of events increase. Although it seems correct, it is wrong.
As the number of events increases, deviation from equipartition increases, while the deviation as a percentage of the number of trials decreases.
This "decreasing percentage" becomes very important in your quest for consistent $$$$'s profits
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