Mooney valley is a Leaders track but swoopers can win if enough speed is on because the straight is hard on runners with its uphill incline to the post, if a runner is due to have an ordinary run, he definitely will at the Valley given the circumstances so best to forgive what seems to be a shocker, if the runner can't get close enough to the leaders, the jockey is not going to try to hard I would think, saving the runner for its next race.

Remember Green Moons run seem to be a shocker and most punters didn't forgive the run, but he had some hard racing before the Valley and had his ordinary run.

To win with a fast pace you would probably need to peaking like Ocean Park did.

Just my thoughts.