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Old 24th July 2015, 05:12 PM
garyf garyf is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 366
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rinconpaul
Don't make ratings the be all and end all in your life. Why? Coz too many people take notice of them and put their money on them. What does that do....it doesn't make it worthwhile doing the same as you've lost value. Any quest for the ultimate rating needs to balance it with value.

Here's an example: Take a category of horses with a record of 100% achieving a place, at the current distance, in every past race! Awesome, a million punters think? "I'll put some money on that."

I looked at a months results. These horse won 21.4% of their races, BUT at SP, you had a LOT of 34%.

Now let's look at horses that have never placed at the current distance in every past race. They only won 11.6% of their races but the LOT was only 0.09%. Now that's an edge you can work on?

That's because their prices were greater, and no one was backing them. On paper they didn't look so hot. Pursuing ratings the age old way, you'll always miss these horses. It's a conundrum of epic proportions, how to find value but also an undiscovered chance of winning?

All I can say in your quest for the perfect rating, is you need to be using a method not used by the computer crunching tipsters and ratings people. I said in an earlier thread/post that from a lay point of view the higher the past strike rate % of horses, the more Lay profit until you get back to 4th - 6th. Maybe that's where you should be looking as they're under the radar?


Correct it all boils down to HOW YOU INTERPRET DATA.,
And where the real advantage is.

Be it statistical rating form or whatever as evident,
In my lay posting(32)

Here simply is a distance rating that at a certain distance,
In SYD-PROV when first or second favourite are lays.

How many people would be doing form-stats & say,
This has the best statistics at todays race & distance,
Based on starts wins places etc.

But if you look at in it another way ???.(post-32)

I have stacks of these that statistically look good with ratings,
But in certain places have little chance when looked at from different angles.

Ratings are only "ONE" part of the puzzle but are never to be disregarded.

Cheers.
Garyf.
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