Disagree. If you're getting a 5.9% strike rate then at $17.00 plus a profit is made. However, a statistically meaningful sample would need to be many, many thousands. But it's a fact that many punters can't handle losing runs. Or bet too big so when that inevitable losing run happens they get wiped out etc. etc. etc. So I like to look at angles that most punters dismiss, including looking for ways to snare those massive winners. One angle that I've done well with is backing selected horses from wide barriers in fields of 15 runners and more in races that are not down the Flemington straight, like Koonoomoo $26.00 on Cup Day. I also like looking for horses at big odds that are first up like Jester's Girl $58.20 at Eagle Farm on Saturday and Reigning $41.00 at Warwick Farm 3 weeks back. I look at what a horse could do first up and only back it at massive odds with small bets so I can handle the runs of outs. So many horses improve from one campaign to another or are capable of an unexpected big first up run. Also because a horse has a poor first up record - no placings from say 5 starts doesn't mean it is no good first up. I look at stuff like the distances of those first up runs, how far beaten, luck in running, the track conditions, the length of the spell and the opposition it was racing against.