OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums - View Single Post - Ratings2Win Profitable Favourites

This post will summarise the over all result of the whole exercise that we have run here, while in the search of the answer to the question if it is possible to make profits, long term from favourites.

The test was carried out by posting all the selections each morning prior to races with the only remaining filters to obtain the actual qualifiers being that the selection must be favourite and in the case of the 'Dry' system must be run of Good or Dead track. From our research we determined that the expected result would be a winning strike rate of 46.4% and POT of 4.56% based on NSW/SP and about 2 bets per day as pointed out in post 5 of this thread. We opened ourselves to criticism and the forum curse to see if a well constructed system can indeed deliver long-term profits and here are the results:

Code:

Date Range   - 26/05/2013 to 31/07/2013   Period of Days - 67
Price Option - Best of SP and NSW

WIN STATISTICS   Value    Bets   Wins   SR      Collect         Avg       POT       Profit          Outs  

                 Races    130    62     47.7%   $139.77         $2.25     7.52%     $9.77           6

After 2 months of live testing we delivered and exceed what we promised and gave all those that took our selections a profit from free tips. This system has proven to be safe with the risk to bank at just 10% draw-down. I hope that we have proven that with the right horses that are favourites it is possible to make a profit.

Of course it is not very inspiring to watch a system being tested with $1 level stake bets so lets have a look at some other possible and realistic alternatives. Using a $10,000 bank and better div model it becomes very evident that this is a great start toward profitable punting.

Proportional Staking to take out 4% - 8% POT Profit $2,372 with 17% max bank risk
Level Stake 1% of bank - 10% POT Profit $1,497 with 10% max bank risk

These are very conservative betting models, based on the fact that these are favourites we can safely increase the bets and still be able to get on without effecting the price or experiencing liquidity issues.

This system alone could easily help cover the monthly subscription to our Axis program and allow it's user to generate these selections for themselves together with all the other profitable systems that could be constructed and with all the benefits that Axis has to offer. If you are looking to change or simply improve your punting and are looking for the right tools then evidently Axis is the right tool; our transparent results speak loud and clear and anyone can replicate them!

We want to thank all those that have supported and encouraged us along the way and look forward to the challenges of the next test.