4th February 2015, 02:12 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Bundy
Posts: 292
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by evajb001
Dale:
Definitely agree that tempo/pace has a bearing on if a particular race will be favourable to leaders or not. However there is definitely still bias at play particularly at certain tracks. For instance you cannot tell me Moonee Valley isn't leader bias. Everyone knows this including trainers, jockeys and punters. Yet still those who settle in front at MV do still have an advantage (in my opinion). What i'm looking at doing is simply finding other tracks/distance where there is such an advantage as well - which is evidenced by Chrome Prince's research in a different thread - and attempting to make a profit from that track bias by betting or laying the appropriate runner(s).
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Hi Eva,
Im with you, at the end of the day if it works and you find enough of an edge thats all that matters.
However i still maintain that it is somewhat overblown. The Moonee Valley reference a prime example.
It is a tight turning track with a short straight. Not every horse handles the track, horses that handle it travel well, they race faster than those that fail to handle the turns so therefore they are in front during the race and only have a short straight to hold on.
The other really significant factor at Moonee Valley is the limited field size. They are almost always fields of 10 or less. Its exactly what i was saying about field size being the real issue.
Id like to see leader statistics at Moonee Valley comparing races with more than 10 starters and those with under. Its only once you see that percentage break down does any of this mean anything.
Dont get me wrong, not having a go at you just offering an opinion on something i know is continuously over looked and is a big big part of why certain horses win certain types of races.
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