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The first two dams are important and I also look at the cross which must have at least 50%+ winners to runners or yet to have any runners (excluding the maiden in question). In other words, if the cross has 'failed' under my criteria I leave the maiden alone.
In my small sample (36) no horse won their debut when the cross winners to runners was greater than 66.2% (12 total). Winning debutantes were either 0/0 (2 from 3 possibilities) or 50-66.1% (5 from 16). Previously "failed" crosses were 0 from 3 possibilities.
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I do not look at the Sires list to see their winners to runners strike rates as I am not backing everything by that sire, I have culled those that dont qualify and am hopefully on the better potential runners. For instance the sire Keeper has an average strike rate of total winners to total runs. But I am only betting his 2&3yos and qualifying on female line and cross. Pins is another.
My original sires/broodmare sires lists were just based on their overall stats. For that reason Keeper didn't make it. Afterwards, I considered I was only interested in the results of their young so looked at their 2 and 3yo stats and culled those that were poorer from the existing lists. For that reason Pins stayed there. I wasn't interested in going back and finding sires like Keeper that I'd missed on the first sweep, as those I had were still throwing up plenty of possibilities.
Regarding my comment on scraping dosage profiles from a website, pedigreequery produces a plaintext "family tree" that I could probably parse (whereas most other sources are pdf files). I can then automate calculation of each horses's dosage profile, DI, CD, etc. One day I'll do it and see if there's any statistical significance to these figures....
Regarding "name" trainers possibly being associated with debutantes in my sweetspot range accounting for their low winning odds, I went back and checked who they were (actually, *are*, I suppose they could've changed trainers in the 6-8 months between debut and now...) : Gai Waterhouse - $6.50 winner, David Murphy - 2nd @ short odds, Robert Smerdon - 2nd @ short odds, JE & C Ledger - $2.20 winner, Kris Lees - $2 winner, Patrick J Webster - miss @ long odds, David Hayes and Tom Dabernig - $1.80 winner, David Hayes - $3.70 winner, Tony McEvoy - $3.80 winner. Given that I know ************-all about trainers yet recognise most of these names...was I right?
If you or anyone else has an inkling to cast their eye over the following, the "sweetspot" horses were:
Nayeli
Gold Buttons
Reldas
Red Kaoru
Lunar Snitzel
L'amoureuse
Urban Bourbon
Wawail
Kayjay's Joy
All of which have gone on to win since they're debut (at short odds) asides from L'amoureuse. This filly was the long odds loser at its first run and hasn't been sighted since. It's also got the lowest CD of the lot. The highest CD is claimed by one of the 2nd placegetters; funnily enough.
*insert statement here regarding small sample size, normal statistical variation, etc
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