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Old 16th August 2015, 08:52 AM
Michal Michal is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,007
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Hi UB,

Below is a condensed copy of a post from this thread, a few months old. Where I have answered the question you asked and offered my take on the 'misleading' performance statement, which the other poster also made. You can ignore all that if you like and just go straight to the figures.

Kind Regards

Michal

PS Sorry for the lateness of the reply, I now only come here to this thread to update the stats.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Michal
Thanks for your question. Can I just say that the strike rate is not misleading, it is a FACTUAL statement of performance, it cannot be misinterpreted and can be scrutinized by potential clients.

1. The strike rate indicates performance of the rating, that is all that we stand by and can control (as opposed to dividends) but under no circumstances are we saying that betting the top pick (for instance) in every race makes money; the selection of bets rests with the client and as a result we cant really publish profits as we do not know what races/horses clients wish to peruse. Axis and the data are tools.

2. Most other competitors (free or otherwise) don't publish anything close to our (up to date) results let alone the POT ! Or they pick and choose their races (which becomes tipping, not rating). Or they just make unsubstantiated statements. So there is little to compare with; its a given that all RAW ratings lose money, the point is how close are you to breakeven as a starting point.

Im very proud of our work, Im going to provide strike rates and POT for ALL RACES for our Intelligence Rating for 2014, I hope that is fair ? At least we eliminate the short term frame issue.

Date range 01/01/2014 to 22/09/2014 Total races 11,883

Top Pick Strike rate 26.6% ( our advertised 4 year average is 26.8%)
Top 3 Strike rate 58.4% ( our advertised 4 year average is 58.4%)

Top Pick POTs - Flat bets
NSW Tote -11.37%
SP/NSW -7.05%
Closing Fixed Price -4.22%
Best Tote and SP -3.64%

Top Pick POTs - Proportional bets
SP/NSW -5.7%
Closing Fixed Price -3.04%
Best Tote and SP -2.61%

Early/better shopping can secure even better prices and better outcomes; our BEST testable combination in the Betting Analyses yealds +0.22 POT but this depends on the user and is likely not realistically achievable under normal circumstances. However it is possible to obtain results SOMEWHERE BETWEEN the worse and best case scenario featured above. Remember these are FACTUAL statements that can be scrutinized by potential clients.

P.S.
As I had to do a test recently for the Newspaper price (not using our software) here is the Strike rate for the same period as above: Top pick 25% and -17% POT using NSW tote. Ours is -11.37% Something to compare!
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Michal - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database;
with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/
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