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  #41  
Old 17th April 2012, 07:48 AM
jimmyz jimmyz is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
PS to Bhagwan..

Regards when a place selection starts Odds on Fav.. have considered backing it as a WIN only at around the 1.50+ mark given that it is a strong candidate for success, rather than an 'untested' run of the mill odds on favorite
eg a Star Bet which which will often go %i%s up in the straight!

What do you think?

LG

If in ones view the additional potential profit overrides the reduced chance of a collect, 1 chance (to win) versus up to 3 chances (to place), then I would guess the answer is yes ? Can this be verified mathematically ?
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  #42  
Old 17th April 2012, 08:56 AM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bhagwan
I am not quite sure of the question .

Could you explain please.


The premise being that I am trialing a place betting system which will invariably bring up odds-on selections from time to time with poor value on the place DIV

The question being whether I choose to select a WIN bet for these (next to the other place bets), rather than a PLACE bet ? Or perhaps best to look on = leave out.

LG
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  #43  
Old 17th April 2012, 10:06 AM
bernie bernie is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bhagwan
Some may like to try staking 1win x 6plc method.
It can be profitable if the Place SR is approx 70%

Bet if...
Min Place price 1.20
Min Win price 1.60

Bhagwan, how many staking plans have you posted over the years? It seems like hundreds. Anyway, here is the only plan that I would recommend for someone who had a really good system for picking placed horses. 80% or higher would be great.





A B C

1 2 4

3 6 12

9 18 36



Start playing bracket A

If you get a place dividend paying $1.50 or better start again. If shorter than $1.50 repeat the bet. A loss, go to the next bet.

Strike 3 successive losers or the 9 unit bet misses move to bracket B. Follow the same procedure except that if your 18 unit bet is successful you move back to bracket A.

Same for bracket C but a win at 36 units takes you back to the start of bracket A.



Safety rule. When the third horse in brackets A or B fills a place at less than $1.50 and the overall bracket is in profit it maybe prudent to go back to the start of the bracket.



Like all staking plans it has its limitations but as Bhagwan would say, “it can be profitable” used wisely.
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  #44  
Old 17th April 2012, 11:55 AM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Bernie, you been reading ppm to much me thinks.
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  #45  
Old 17th April 2012, 12:37 PM
bernie bernie is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
Bernie, you been reading ppm to much me thinks.
Dunno Shaun. It came from a publication called Dollars & Sense.
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  #46  
Old 17th April 2012, 01:01 PM
garyf garyf is offline
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Wink

It's called the placegetter.
Page 23 and 24 of that publication.

Many other articles of interest there.
Money management
How pro's win
Probabilities.
The right percentages.
Compiling prices.
The best staking plans etc etc.

A blast from the past eh Bernie.

Cheers.
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  #47  
Old 17th April 2012, 02:26 PM
bernie bernie is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garyf
It's called the placegetter.
Page 23 and 24 of that publication.

A blast from the past eh Bernie.
Yeah garyf a blast from the past. I've read it over and over again. The staking plan I mentioned is, to me, the only positive staking plan in the book.

Another good, if not better, publication is, Refined Betting With Winways. Some good staking plan ideas in there.
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  #48  
Old 17th April 2012, 02:40 PM
garyf garyf is offline
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Smile

YEP got that one with the bright purple cover.
A turf monthly production.

Glad they don't have the year it was printed it will,
Remind me of how old i am ("LOL")

Cheers.
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  #49  
Old 17th April 2012, 05:21 PM
TheSchmile TheSchmile is offline
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Greetings all,

Another nice winner today, Kilmore 5-5 Tsar of Russia at $5.70.

Leaving out maidens and Taree due to the Heavy track, there was 1 win from 4 starters for a 1.7 unit gain or 42.5% POT.

Loss on the place today of 2.2 units or - 55% POT.

Still looking promising

The Schmile
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  #50  
Old 17th April 2012, 10:56 PM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Hi Greystoke.
I would take the approach that it only comes a bet if a place price of 1.20+ is possible so that we can use the leverage of the 1 x 6 approach.

Any shorter than that & one will only be treading water because those cant lose horses have been known to fall in a hole & its hard to make it up with other really short priced horses.
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