There is always a debate that is raging somewhere in the world right now on this topic.

Can you make money from betting favourites?

Most professional punters do just that. And for good reason.

• There is scope to bet decent money across many agencies without affecting the price as much as a decent go would be on a long shot.
• Market reaction or lack off is easier to recognize with the liquidity
• Market is the most correct barometer of horses chances

There are some big negatives as well.

• Once the fave is known the price generally slides
• You have to sit there all day and watch, with races 5 min or even less apart that can be really bad for your kidneys! Once you identify a favorite then you have to execute the bet in all that short time.

One way to improve your chances is to go through all the races and eliminate all the horses that shouldn’t be favourites. That will leave you with a short list that is manageable. You then concentrate on that list.

The answer is that YES it can be done, You will need to run some sort of software or manual method to eliminate those selections that are unsuitable and you should be left with a few good horses every day! Waiting for these pre-selected bets is much easier to manage and bet then just a plain list of all horses.

Of course the issue is; what do you use to qualify the selections? Well, I would say that RATINGS coupled with a few select form filters are your best chances. There is a good reason to use ratings, firstly they qualify the horse’s chance against all others in a race and secondly they are hopefully a little unique and not available to everyone under the sun like the general form is.
Form is important and when used properly can eliminate horses that would otherwise qualify especially for extreme situations. EG horse rising 10kg in weight or something like that, while this may or may not be a factor I would suggest that you research such issues and make your form rules accordingly.

Before I get shouted down, I can offer some proof across several thousand selections over the last 3+ years. And I have attached the spreadsheet to this post. The prices are based on better of NSW/SP.

What’s more we have been giving away the selections for FREE, (some of you already visit for them) live each morning for the last 5 months. I thought that it would be great to post the selections here and see how it goes against the dreaded forum curse for a few months.

So far in the live period of 5 months we have
Selections 419 (just under 3 per DAY)
Strike rate 47.5%
- Profit on turnover +3.34% NSW TOTE ONLY using flat bet with a Maximum bank risk of only 20.5%
- Profit on turnover +6.39% ISP (average closing fixed price available on the internet) using flat bet with a Maximum bank risk of only 18.5%
- Profit on turnover +8.47% NSW/SP using flat bet with a Maximum bank risk of only 16%
- Profit on turnover +11.39% BestTote/SP/ISP using flat bet with a Maximum bank risk of only 16%, (BestTote/SP/ISP is what we consider the best case scenario, this could be achievable for those many that use Betfair and fixed odds and best of best and similar products to improve the return)

For those that want to bet proportional, then a real scenario is $5000 bank, 4% takeout, profit $4136 or 7.56% POT just at NSW/SP with Maximum bank risk at 27%. Nice and safe!

So is it possible? Here you have it, it seems it’s not only possible; it’s sustainable and above all REALISTIC with not only the possible bet size you can have but more importantly based on a solid sample of several thousand selections!


These Selections were created with Ratings2Win Axis software using a single system.

To use these selections only bet when they are SP favourite and if the tracks are Good or Dead. If you use other then SP to determine the favourite then your results may vary but should be about the same in the long run!

Attached Files

R2W FREE SYSTEM - PROFITABLE FAVORITES - RESULTS win selections.xls (477.5 KB, 1139 views)

__________________
Michal - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database;
with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

R2W FREE SELECTIONS
(Best results - Only G/D tracks + Selections are SP fave.)

26/05/2013 - R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY
13:00 STRAT 2 1 Finniss Power
13:05 CRANB 5 4 Koritsi Mou
13:45 DEVS 4 2 Vedo
14:10 STRAT 4 8 Terrapinna
16:28 CASTE 8 1 Emdee

__________________
Michal - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database;
with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

2 tremendous posts Michal. Thank you for these.

Cheers LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

great post. This forum is starting to come back alive with some really good information.

I should have noted that the spreadsheet contains in excess of 2600 selections with a winning strike rate of 46.4% and POT of 4.56% based on NSW/SP.

__________________
Michal - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database;
with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

Just like to make an observation & I am not offering an opinion on the above one way or another -

The first & foremost issue I consider when deciding on an punting approach is whether or not it is profitable over time, & while the results detailed in the spreadsheet do show a profit, they also show a break even period of about 2 years, chart attached.

Attached Files

chart.xls (800.5 KB, 635 views)

Michal, do you by some chance have the place dividends for the previous data set you attached, using the same format?


Cheers LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

LG,

The system printout is specific for our display purposes, which is to show win only. The place portion uses NSW tab because there are no SP place divs. It shows a loss of 1.41% POT if that is what you are asking.

Michal

__________________
Michal - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database;
with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

HI Michal, just to clarify.. are you able to source the individual NSW Place dividends which equate to the overall loss of 1.41% and list them to the RHS of the WinDiv field? It would help me assess the usefulness of your good results here with regards my own systems, strategies i.e. as a base/bulk method = starting point



Cheers LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

LG,

Yes I am able to to do that, in-fact Axis has the ability to use any of the 3 totes as the div, plus Best tote and middle tote for anyone wanting to match their betting activity against obtainable corporate products.

You can contact us through Ozmium and I will then email you the printout when Im doing the end of month consolidation. We are more then happy to help those that genuinely want to consider Axis, its features and how it can best fit in with their betting methods and budget.

It should be noted, that we offer these Free system selections to showcase the programs ability, the actual systems showcased will be replaced with a new one from time to time in order to be fair to those that have actually purchased our product.

Michal

__________________
Michal - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database;
with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/