True there were quite a few longer shots winning today.

Melbourne Cup week often throws up unfathomable results.

.. and pay day for the bookies?

Somehow that makes sense in a way,
Logical given volumes and the objective of their trade

LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Spot on SpeedyBen,

On your Average Saturday there are 3-5 half decent chances and a couple that have been set specifically for the race.

Come Melbourne Cup Carnival and it's more like 80-90% of the field has been set for the race.

Tough going for us mere mortals.

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

No tips today ?

I thought that there were only 2 chances in the Mackinnon and that Alcopop was unlucky and not far off Ocean Park last time they met. I had access to the bookie who is offering double odds on all Grp 1 this spring so i decided that Alco offered a good chance at $11. Bewdy!!

Smart betting.

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Hi Guys,

Sorry for being out of action for a few days. There haven't been many plays anyhow due to the massive fields etc and plus it was my birthday monday (next year its melb cup day, might have to make an effort to attend).

In reply quickly to macs: No I don't use Bet Selector

I made a few sheckles on Green Moon yesterday so its time to live bet my 75% plays. I'll be starting with just a $200 bankroll, betting 1% of previous max daily bankroll.

i.e. Day 1 bankroll goes from $200 to $215
All bets on Day 2 are then 1% of $215 or $2.15

Day 2 bankroll goes from $215 to $207
All bets on Day 3 are still 1% of $215 or $2.15 and so on

I'll be posting all plays in here for now and we'll see how it goes. I'll be keeping very close records of all bets in a spreadsheet i've got which shows all stats etc that I think i've shared on here previously. I'll also be looking for any opportunities to adjust the method slightly or my staking however I wont be doing anything outragous as this seems to be profitable over the long-term.

Any questions/queries then fire away, i'll be updating on lunch break with today's plays. Also note from now on i'll only be backing my top rater using this method and not the second rater. While the second rater has shown to be profitable previously, it was only marginal in some months and i'd prefer to just follow my toppy. I'll look at using a combination of SB or BF to execute my bets as well, mainly SB to start with and then possibly move towards BF in the future.

Cheers

Good luck with it mate, any chance you could post up your spreadsheet for download as it was very good.

All bets placed with stake of $2

Eagle Farm - Race 7

No.
4 Defenceman

Eagle Farm - Race 8

No.
2 Silver Command

Grafton - Race 4

No.
2 River Spirit

Kyneton - Race 5

No.
10 Ferguson

Kyneton - Race 7

No.
2 Streets Away