32 selections returned 32.10 against tatts prices.

Hi All,

I'm back in the office now after a long and draining 4 days of work plus catching up with mates having long drinking sessions. Went to the soccer saturday afternoon for the first time to watch Adelaide United which was good fun, something i'd do again. I'll go through the past 4-5 days stats and give you a big run down later tonight of the individual day stats and the overall stats since I started posting the plays in here. I'm pretty certain its still in profit, also i'm not sure all the plays I posted would have been plays had I been able to review the races myself each day but i'll cover off on all that tonight. Only one play for today:

Wellington - Race 4

No. 6 Dunderry

Here are the stats gents:

Wednesday:
25% SR
Straight Staking 12% LOT
$5/$3 Staking 22% LOT

Thursday:
50% SR
Straight Staking 125% POT
$5/$3 Staking 150% POT

Friday:
25% SR
Straight Staking 8% LOT
$5/$3 Staking 9% POT

Saturday:
29% SR
Straight Staking 4% POT
$5/$3 Staking 3% POT

Sunday:
38% SR
Straight Staking 79% POT
$5/$3 Staking 92% POT

Overall:
35% Strike Rate (32 Winners 91 Bets)
Straight Staking 40% POT
$5/$3 Staking 48% POT (+$190.50 in 8 days)

Note the top selection has performed a lot better with the following overall stats:

SR 43%
POT 67%
+40.2 units

1 winner from 1 bet today gents. Paid $2.90 on tatts but $3.40 for top tote.

All of my stats are recorded at tatts prices but if your using BF, Top Tote or something similar you can probably add a good 10% to the $ profit and maybe 5% to the POT figures.

Overall we're +$201.00 in 9 days now with the $5/$3 staking and the top rater only is +42.1 units now. I'm starting to be pretty re-assured that at the very least my top rater using this 75% method is profitable over the long term. I'll continue to post the plays for another week or two for those that are interested and if it continues to be profitable then I figure i've proven my ratings to be profitable in forward testing .

Well done evajb001. Looking good.

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

At the start of this thread, you said that the idea of 75% plays was first discussed in another thread.

evajb could you please supply tthe link where the notion of 75% plays was first introduced. Thanking you and thanks for supplying your selections.

I can't remember what thread it was now but I can explain quickly.

Basically I do my ratings by applying a score to each horse, and using the scores I estimate my odds for each horse. Once i've got these odds I sort to find my top rated horse, 2nd rated and so on.

If the odds of my top rated horse are less than 75% of the 2nd rated horse, then its a play. If the 2nd rated horse is less than 75% of the 3rd rated horses odds, then the top 2 raters are a play.

I hope that makes sense, if not I can provide examples.

Its in the Quadrella thread but I can't remember the exact post.

It's in the following thread:

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_for...ead.php?t=25273

It starts off by looking at laying my bottom 3 rated horses but moves into a discussion of 75% plays.

Plays for today gents, not exactly excited about any of these, the quality of fields today was pretty poor but see how we go:

Townsville - Race 5

No. 2 Rattus Conatus
No. 9 Slick Line

Townsville - Race 6

No. 5 Panecillo

Taree - Race 7

No. 13 Scarrzam

Seymour - Race 7

No. 9 Get Pronto