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#11
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Looks like a better lay strategy vrs old Gretchin?
LG
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The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB |
#12
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Yes probably a lay strategy rather than a backing one. I do tend to get things backwards.
Murtoa Race 4 No 4 lower on BF + the fav
__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.” ― Earl Nightingale |
#13
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I was thinking of starting a new thread on this but this seems an appropriate place. For the last 10 days or so I have been backing horses which are under 7.0 where the betfair price is lower than the bookies fixed odds in the last 3 mins of betting. The hit rate has been 40% and the profit on $50 bets is over $600.
There are not a lot of them, particularly on the weaker mtgs but since I watch most races for my other strategies it has been interesting. I have read many times that the horses which qualify under this criterion do well but have never tried it before since it would be pretty boring as a standalone method. Yesterday there was not a single selection but usually there are 2 or 3, with more on metro mtgs. |
#14
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Quote:
Thanks SpeedyBen. I guess that's a little different to what I was trying to get at with two different favs but it goes along with a few other suggestions here (particularly michaelg) where if a horse on BF is under the tote price then it may be a goer. As you say there wouldn't be much action. That $600 you talked about. Is that backing on BF or with the bookie? I'm assuming you would soon be banned if making that kind of money with a bookie.
__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.” ― Earl Nightingale |
#15
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I have all of this data going back a few months. I did look into it a while abck and it was a long term loser. I will look into it again and report back.
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#16
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Quote:
There was one bet today after I posted earlier and the bookie I was looking at was betting 7.00 on a horse which was 4.4 on BF. Must have been a mistake as after my bet was accepted it came up as 4.2 with the bookie. The bookie's guardian angel was at work however and the horse never looked a winner. |
#17
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Quote:
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#18
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Quote:
This is the sort of thing that is good about forums like this. Some naive person (me ops: ) puts out a hare brained proposal and someone comes along and either confirms it or shoots it down. That's okay as now I just move onto the next thing (once I can think of something ).
__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.” ― Earl Nightingale |
#19
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ok I took a look at this and only looked at favs.
It showed a slight profit overall for laying to a set amount. Straight Bet $100 Test Range 1: $453 Test Range 2: $-610 Test Range 3:$-2100 Bet to an Amount: $100 profit Test Range 1: $-356.03 Test Range 2:$-331.10 Test Range 3:$-725 Lay Bet $100 Test Range 1:$-2066.50 Test Range 2: $-78 Test Range 3:$1022.00 Lay to Amount $100 Test Range 1: $-68.00 Test Range 2:$95.27 Test Range 3:$336.26 These periods covered the last 4 months of data in 10,000 horses per test range. (not all 10,000 made the criteria though). Laying to a set amount is the only profitable method. |
#20
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Thanks for those stats UB.
I was thinking along the lines of backing so there you go.
__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.” ― Earl Nightingale |
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