Thanks Paul.

Much appreciated.

Hi Paul,
In relation to the Max Drawdown calculator and the differences between your set up and the one given out.
If I take the last 301 bets on wet tracks the figures are

301 trials

Av odds $3.60

Edge 0.44

Profit 26 .6 profit

Max Drawdown 25.4

LLR 16

Chance of Winning 27.9 (my current Win %)

Staking I use is

Bet to take $200 divided X Gross price of odds

$200 divided $3.70 = Bet of $54.

I would be most interested on your calculations and how they differ.

Thanks for that.I appreciate it.

Cheers
darky

Hi darky

301 bets, 27.9% Strike rate, average div of $3.60, edge 0.44%, risk threshold of 50% and assuming a $10,000 bank the figures are:

Expected profit: $106
68% of the time the results will be between -8.9% POT (-$2,135) and 9.7% POT $2,347
95% of the time the results will be between -18.2% POT (-4,376) and 19.1% POT $4,588.

Anywhere between the above ranges is normal. There is still a 5% chance that your results will fall outside the above ranges. Bottom line is that you are risking a lot of money for virtually no profit and IMO given the small sample anyone betting and relying on an edge of only 0.44% will more than likely go broke.

__________________
Regards


Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

Thank you Paul.

Is there a answer to the liklihood of failure ?
i.e Increasing the Acceptable Price.?

I mean by that if the av price is $3.60 Not accepting anything below $3.80 - $4.Plus.

Cheers
darky

Hi darky

Your edge is the problem in that its too small. Your average div is made up of all your bets across all price ranges. Accordingly if you don't bet on the shorter ones then your strike rate will reduce which makes it even harder to profit.

In terms of likelihood of failure, my view is that risking 50% of your bank to potentially win only 0.44% POT doesn't make any sense. Most punters overestimate their edge assuming they have one in the first place, which most obviously don't. To win with such a small edge is very difficult if not impossible.

If you can send me a list of these horses then I will analyse them for you and send you the results so you can see for yourself the impact of changing the minimum price and 115 or so other variables.

__________________
Regards


Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

Hi darky

Exceeded the allowable time to edit. All I need is a CSV file with date and horse name.

__________________
Regards


Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

Generally there just numbers for me as long as the horse is Fav and a acceptable price i will bet it.

Out of the 16 contenders today there were only 2 I bet on,
Belmont / R 4 H5 /Jestic $3.20 lost.

Cranbourne / R 1 H 8 /Racing Nadine $3.10 lost

Hi Paul,

Whats your take on betting Double overlays exclusively?

Cheers
darky

Hi darky,

Personally I do not price all the runners and look to bet "the overs". There are major Syndicates operating in Australia that are struggling to win with that model and they employ the best technology and dozens of people so the average punter stands no chance. So no I do not suggest that you attempt to back "Double overlays exclusively". In any case you need strong evidence to support the notion that your prices are accurate enough so as to uncover potential bets that fit the notion of a double overlay. From my experience they sometimes exist but are rare.

When looking at the form in an effort to find a suitable bet, I am mainly concerned with analysing those factors that I know are a market weaknesses. Some of these are basic factors that are obvious from the form guide, while others involve more complex intelligence such as speed ratings and other factors that I call my profile factors. For the most part, I totally ignore many of the factors that the majority of other punters consider important because the market already values them correctly. I have identified some of these on this forum in previous posts.

When I decide to bet I am doing so on the basis that the horse in question fits into a group of horses that are undervalued by the market sufficiently to return a satisfactory profit. This does not mean that I am applying a fixed set of rules as most races present a range of competing variables that require a fair amount of subjective analysis to be made. That is where the art of form study and a comprehensive knowledge of betting math/science is required.

So in summary it's the combination of variables that are incorrectly valued by the market that make the bet profitable. As part of that process I tune into the markets intelligence when determining my final win & place probabilities.

__________________
Regards


Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

This makes sense.. the invisible becomes visible and presents an opportunity to yield the kinds of returns which are there for the taking but largely ignored - untapped by the market. The more I look for this, the more I opportunities I see. A quest in itself which could last a lifetime I reckon.

Question is; do we have to - want to wait a lifetime to get to this point, if at all??

LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB