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  #1  
Old 12th December 2012, 07:52 PM
The Ocho The Ocho is offline
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Question Is this possible?

I am trying something out on my bot using betfair and am now going to ask what is most likely a very stupid question.

I am backing the first three favs to win the same amount (All to win $5 just at the moment).

While I know this won't work long term, I am trying several different things to possibly make it work, but there's something I would like to know from (maybe) the mathematicians around here.

Is it possible to back all runners in the race AND make money when one of the first 3 favs wins but come out even or not lose much should any of the other runners win? Kind of like Dutch betting I suppose (if I understand what that concept is about). Kind of back the first 3 favs to win $5 and then back the rest to win varying amounts.

I can't figure it out because as soon as you bet on the other runners then the amount you win on the first 3 favs comes down. This then means you need to back the first 3 favs to win more and it then becomes a vicious circle.

It may be possible if you carefully place your bets early (if you can) but can a bot just fire the bets off with, say, 20 seconds before the off.

While I know every race has different odds I would be hoping just to use generic average type odds for each fave or a varying amount to win for each fave.

My bot only goes to the first 10 favs just for your info.

I know, I know, stupid question but Ive's gots to know. ops:
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  #2  
Old 12th December 2012, 10:38 PM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Not really a stupid question, I'm sure others are way more equipped to answer it better then me but i'm going to guess that its only possible when placing the bets at different times, because if you place them at the same time then you'll just end up on the road to the poor house.

I'm guessing you need to maximise your odds on those 3 favourites somehow and then look at hending across the rest of the field when they come in closer to start time, but I could be way off the mark here as well.

Small side question TO, do you find that your bot uses a LOT of your bandwidth? I had betbotpro running for a few days and then checked my usage and almost 10gb of data had disappeared so now i've gone off the idea of using it.
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  #3  
Old 12th December 2012, 10:42 PM
Mark Mark is offline
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Unless you use Betfair then no, generally you can't. Have a look at the range of traded prices on any race on BF. The % will usually swing between around 80% - 120%. The trick is knowing when to get on. I find it much easier to lay every runner and win.
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  #4  
Old 12th December 2012, 11:11 PM
The Ocho The Ocho is offline
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Thanks guys.

It looks like you have to be in front of the computer to be able to back (or lay) when the price is right rather than all at once. Buggar!! I was hoping for my bot to actually make me a bit of spare money for a change instead of losing bucket loads.

I realize I have my trading but I still live in hope that my bot can actually make me some passive income (lucky I'm not holding my breath).

My bot (BF bot manager v2) doesn't hardly use any bandwidth. Did it happen only once, evajb001, or every time? You may have to uninstall and re-install it as that doesn't sound right or get in touch with its maker. You may also have it refreshing way too often.
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  #5  
Old 13th December 2012, 12:37 AM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Happened a couple of times now, I might have to try turning the refresh rate down or something.

I've got a new backing strategy and laying strategy with my ratings that seems to be working so far and I want to use the bot to do it all on BF to hopefully increase my winnings but I don't want to chew through bandwidth on a daily basis.
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  #6  
Old 13th December 2012, 07:29 AM
aussielongboat aussielongboat is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Ocho
I am trying something out on my bot using betfair and am now going to ask what is most likely a very stupid question.

I am backing the first three favs to win the same amount (All to win $5 just at the moment).

While I know this won't work long term, I am trying several different things to possibly make it work, but there's something I would like to know from (maybe) the mathematicians around here.

Is it possible to back all runners in the race AND make money when one of the first 3 favs wins but come out even or not lose much should any of the other runners win? Kind of like Dutch betting I suppose (if I understand what that concept is about). Kind of back the first 3 favs to win $5 and then back the rest to win varying amounts.

I can't figure it out because as soon as you bet on the other runners then the amount you win on the first 3 favs comes down. This then means you need to back the first 3 favs to win more and it then becomes a vicious circle.

It may be possible if you carefully place your bets early (if you can) but can a bot just fire the bets off with, say, 20 seconds before the off.

While I know every race has different odds I would be hoping just to use generic average type odds for each fave or a varying amount to win for each fave.

My bot only goes to the first 10 favs just for your info.

I know, I know, stupid question but Ive's gots to know. ops:


either way what you need to do is get your % under 100 including BF commission.
Unless you have an edge and know which ones are going to firm and which ones are going to increase in price it would be impossible in the long run.

If it was possible it would be a way to print serious long term money.

cheers
aussie
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  #7  
Old 13th December 2012, 08:45 AM
Mark Mark is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aussielongboat

If it was possible it would be a way to print serious long term money.

cheers
aussie


Which laying over 100% is.
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  #8  
Old 13th December 2012, 09:13 AM
aussielongboat aussielongboat is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark
Which laying over 100% is.


agreed
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  #9  
Old 13th December 2012, 09:29 AM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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So from a general perspective, what we are saying here is...

If one has an edge and can identify what firms and what drifts, therein lies the opportunity to make a considerable return over the longer term?

Cheers LG

PS sorry to restate 'the obvious' here chaps.. just wanted to be crystal clear on this one from your perspective. Thanks.
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  #10  
Old 13th December 2012, 09:39 AM
aussielongboat aussielongboat is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
So from a general perspective, what we are saying here is...

If one has an edge and can identify what firms and what drifts, therein lies the opportunity to make a considerable return over the longer term?

Cheers LG

PS sorry to restate 'the obvious' here chaps.. just wanted to be crystal clear on this one from your perspective. Thanks.


Well that's my view and really its hardly ground breaking as it forms the corner stone of any successful approach to punting and indeed from a broader perspective ....one's approach to any commercial endeavour.

Just as a clarification - you obviously need to identify what firms and drifts and make your wager before it happens
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