not a bad day with a nice win in Kyneton Race 7.

Also Happy birthday for the other day.

$22 winners are not easy to find. Well done.

Well done Evaj.

This is a method of staking one may like to experiment with ,using a dry run first.

Say our base bet is 1 unit on a 200 unit bank.

Now divide your assessed price into the 2nd runners assessed price.

That resulting figure is then multiplied by the base bet of 1 unit.

Example
Top rated accessed price is 2.00
2nd Top rated accessed price is say 3.50
2.00 into 3.50 = 1.75
1.75 x 1.00 base bet = O/L 1.75 units

The idea is to take advantage on the accessed price's , price gap.
The bigger the gap , the more that is put on.
Up to a max of 3 times the gap difference.
Meaning that a max of 1.5% of bank is ever made on a strong chance Horse.

This can be a powerful technique of maximising profits if all goes our way on the day.

__________________
Cheers.

mattio - i'm working on giving it a facelift then will try make it available for people on here.

UB/SpeedBen - Thanks

Bhagwan - I've just tested my data in 4 ways including your described method, here are the results:

Flat Stake 1% of $100 bankroll ($1) for all bets:
426 Winners from 1,050 Bets (40.57% SR)
Turnover of $1,050
Profit of $513
POT 48.83%
ROI 513%

$1 Unit size adjusting for assessed Prices through ratings (Note I adjusted Bhagwan's equation slightly and have explained at the bottom)
426 Winners from 1,050 Bets (40.57% SR)
Turnover of $1,455
Profit of $723
POT 49.69%
ROI 723%

1% of Max Bankroll since inception adjusted for each bet
426 Winners from 1,050 Bets (40.57% SR)
Turnover of $41,427
Profit of $14,784
POT 35.69%
ROI 14,784%

1% of Max Bankroll since inception adjusted for each bet AND also adjusted based on assessed prices via ratings (As per below)
426 Winners from 1,050 Bets (40.57% SR)
Turnover of $338,971
Profit of $109,151
POT 32.20%
ROI 109,151%

So essentially based on the above by implementing some staking plans (1% of max bankroll insread of set units AND adjusted for assessed prices) you dramatically increase your profits at the sacrifice of additional turnover and therefore reducing POT. Interested on the thoughts/comments from others, I highly doubt in practice I can turn my $200 bankroll into $110,000 over the space of 7 months but thats what my testing is saying. We'll see how it goes in practice.

Adjusted Bhagwan's method:

As my plays are already required to be 75% of the 2nd rated horse, that would mean every bet would have a minimum unit size of 1.3333 every bet. Therefore I used the following equation to adjust for it so that any play which is precisely 75% of 2nd rater will be 1 unit:

((2nd Rated Price / 1st Rated Price) / 1.333333)

Example: Top Rater = $3.54, 2nd Rater = $6.72

((6.72 / 3.54) / 1.33333) = 1.4237
Whereas in Bhagwan's method it would've been 1.8983

You then multiply this by either your unit size (set dollar) or max % of bankroll as i've done. Certainly does seem like a logical way of doing it, doesn't seem to improve the POT by a great deal but simply means your turning over more money for more profit.

Also i'll post my plays for today at around noon.

Today's plays, still at $2

Flemington - Race 5

No.
4 New Beginning

Flemington - Race 6

No.
2 Zydeco

Flemington - Race 9

No.
2 Lord Of Brazil

Hawkesbury - Race 5

No.
1 Boston Tea

Hawkesbury - Race 6

No.
5 Quidnunc

Hawkesbury - Race 7

No.
11 Merlin Mustang

Northam - Race 7

No.
1 Kincora

Evajb and his perpetual profits machine rolleth on.



LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Here's a scary thought. With a 40% strike rate you could safely bet a much higher percentage of your bank if you wished. I would wager that your worst losing run since you started is not worse than 15. Am I correct in this assumption?
Betting at best tote/ SP you were up 8.1 points today.
Triffic.

Hi SpeedyBen,

Your correct, in all of my testing (1 April 2012 til today) max consecutive losses has been 8. However thats by listing the races by venue in my dataset, not by race times. So it could possibly be higher then that if you get what i mean. But your right with only 1% of my max bankroll being the unit size, it would take 100 consecutive losses for bank to be gone, or a very bad string of losses with few wins. I could probably go to 2% but i'll keep it as is for now and see how I go. If I manage to get my bankroll up to $3-400 reasonably quickly i'll likely go to 2%.

So in the 2 active days so far of betting the system live we've had:

33.33% SR
99.17% POT
11.90% ROI
Bankroll = $223.80
New Unit Size = $2.23 (i'll always round down to be prudent)

Had a very good day today, so could probably expect the next couple to be mediocre possibly. Although the start of november was poor in my testing so this could just be the system getting itself back to profit (as every month so far in testing has been profitable).

I know this sounds a bit odd but if you have a large number of results it doesn't really matter what order you store them in the longest run of outs will be pretty much the same. Excuse me if I'm telling you what you already know.
Whether we are talking horse races or side effects in a drug trial the run of outs is entirely dependent on the hit rate percentage. Your hit rate is not much inferior to a coin toss so if you can sustain it you will never have a serious run of outs.
Congratulations.

Speedyben,

What determines the number of results to be confident in your strike rate ? Is 100 bets enough, 1000 bets, 10000 bets ?

Personally I have found at least 6000 races are needed to check ratings before the strike rate starts to stabailise.

I am interested in other peoples findings though.