A question for Mr J:

If my long term strike rate is 29% and my POT is 15.6%, what info do I need to calculate my percentage edge?

I'd like to comment on your question until Mr J arrives.
You'ld think,at first glance,that your edge is the POT of 15%.
If you were playing an even money game then that would be true.But you are taking various prices about your selections.
Supposing you tested at 1000 events,then at level stakes you would have invested $1000 but not necessarily got back $1150.
Only if you were betting level stakes in your declared POT would it be true.

All of what Mr. J has written on the issue of roulette is true - it's a negative game and therefore can not be beaten in the long term by any system or staking plan, although it might be possible to have some sort-term success, eg. having a single bet by placing your whole bank on an evens payout and walk away a winner if successful or walk away broke if not.

Don't laugh, it's probably the best chance of success that roulette offers.

Rock Steady it's not so simple to work out your advantage, this has to be taken on a bet-by-bet basis, eg. if you think you have a genuine 2/1 chance of winning and you can get odds of 4/1 then you should bet 13.3% of your bank: if you think you have a genuine 1/1 chance of winning and can get odds of 2/1 then you should bet 16.7% of your bank etc.

Now betting to such levels of your bank is normally too much for most people so a lesser amount should be bet, eg, 25% of the advantage which in the two examples above would be 3.3% and 4.2%, but if your prices are 100% spot on then to maximise your returns your stake should be equal to your advantage.

The problem is of course in non-casino games (in most other cases) the price is nothing more than an opinion and therein lies the problem. It all comes down to being very, very accurate with your assessment/opinion.



[ This Message was edited by: La Mer on 2004-10-08 11:47 ]

[ This Message was edited by: La Mer on 2004-10-08 11:48 ]

No offence to you La Mer,But I have been involved in a fair bit of friction on this Forum.
And I can see why,after reading your post.
You talk about roulette in answer to Rocksteady's question,but I don't see any reference in his question to that form of betting.
And this is why I think we really need to read what it is people are writing their thoughts about and not presume there is something sinister in between the lines.
Again,not having a go at you,La Mer,and I found your comments very interesting nevertheless.
But to the people who wish to criticise others for their poor efforts,well it seems over 95% of punters end up losing.
And that is the purpose I use of this forum.To share what I know and to learn from others in a way that can be used as a guide.
Well done La Mer for giving something,not necessarily the question poster,but to others that read the forum.

You are correct, there is no direct reference to roulette in Rock Steady's question. However, if you read the roulette system thread, Mr. J makes a number of points, one being that to win you need an advantage (gambling with an edge), which is what Rock Steady asked about (the edge). My response was based on that.

But it really matters little, for Rock Steady didn't actually state what game (casino, sports betting, horse racing etc) that his stats referred to, for in casino games such as roulette there is always a negative math, while unless arbitraging in sports betting or horse racing there is always only an opinion price.

This is for sports/horses??

La Mer is right in that you can really only estimate your edge in sports/horses, since the odds are based on opinions (not fixed like in casino games).

Your longterm POT is generally a good indication of the size of your advantage.

It'd help if we knew how many bets your've placed.

Mr J,
I am talking greyhounds. I have detailed records for the last 7 years.
No of plays = 6484
No of winners = 1880
Units returned = 7545

Your sample is very large. Hitting 15.6%POT over that many bets means your edge is probally around 15%. Also says that you are definately profitable longterm.

97.5% chance that you will hit 8.7% going forward as well. You're also pretty safe betting 8.7% of your bankroll on your picks.

Out of interest, what are the betting limits on the dogs?

Mr J I have read what you've been saying since I came here and it sounds like you have a lot of wisdom in gambling. I have a lot to learn and I think you could help me.

I'm interested in knowing how you approach gambling. What sports do you bet on, how do you decide what amount to bet, what systems do you use to choose your winners, etc.. I'd appreciate it a lot if you could answer those questions.

Thanks.

Mr J,

In Australia, there are virtually no limits on dogs BUT if you are betting dogs with IAS, Sportodds, Sportsbet you have to keep the bets low otherwise they will bet them back on the tote. I keep my bets with these three down to $150 Maximum. With the three totes (Unitab, NSWTAB and Tabcorp) the bets really have to be kept down in relation to the size of the pool. I never bet more than 150 on Unitab, $200 on the other two as their pools are much larger than Unitab.
I generally bet no more than $400 per dog so I spread it evenly over the six organizations.
Also, 8.7% of the BR per bet seems too high.
My longest run of outs is 17 and I have had other losing runs of 12 and 13. If I had bet this high on Friday, I would have lost over half my bankroll. My start bank each year is $50,000 and I draw $6000 per month for total living expenses.