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10/2/2007 edition

Learn From This Betting Advice

Some time ago we heard a horse racing host say:

"So, last couple of races punters have been well and truly on top but you've had to accept fairly short odds about both winning favourites. At least we've got a bit of a bank for the remainder of the day."

1. "So, last couple of races punters have been well and truly on top..."

These comments were made about the tote prices. Punters are never "well and truly on top" of the tote. We all know the tote never loses so it is impossible for punters to be on top.

2. "...you've had to accept fairly short odds..."

We didn't feel that we "had to accept" short tote win odds of $1.30 about and $1.50 about the two winning favourites. How can you possibly say that punters backing winners at those odds are "well and truly on top"?

Sensible bettors never have to accept any odds they consider are too short - that is poor value and poor betting. Sensible bettors decide if the odds are value. Only when the odds are value do sensible bettors place a bet.

3. "...At least we've got a bit of a bank for the remainder of the day."

Sensible punters do not start the day's betting with the aim of backing a few winners early so they have a betting bank. Sensible punters do not place bets on odds on tote favourites at the start of a betting day to try and get a betting bank for the rest of the day. They know that a very conservative betting bank needs to be in place before the day starts. All sensible punters also know that future bets on any day should never be dependent on backing a few winners early.

The horse racing host should have said::

" Punters who took the very poor tote win odds of $1.30 and $1.50 about the last two favourites can consider themselves very fortunate to have made a profit. If they keep taking those odds they'll end up losing."

4. Twenty minutes later when a short priced favourite finished fourth at Eagle Farm we were told it was a "victim of the second up hoodoo."

The "second up hoodoo" is superstition. It is not supported by facts. There is no such thing as a "second up hoodoo". Most horses are improved by their first up runs and will perform at a higher rating level second up.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Learn from this betting advice
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Get those betting odds
The Bunched Finish horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields - 27/1/2007
Betting favourites in small fields - 3/2/2007
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: 27/1/2007: Rosehill & Sandown Hillside
Betting tips from the track: 3/2/2007: Rosehill & Moonee Valley
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 27/1/2007
Punt to Win index

2006 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
Best Tote Odds


Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Typhoon Zed 21.50 28.90 $74
Delta Blues 17.50 20.20 $27
Lyrical Bid 16.50 19.00 $25
Brom Felinity 13.30 15.70 $24
Dance Hero 12.60 14.90 $23
Southern Courage 16.20 18.30 $21



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