Punt to Win
There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.
When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.
The results should prove quite interesting.
Here are the results from Saturday, 3rd. February.
Rosehill: Track Good
R2 $65,000 3YO Class 4. Handicap.
R3 $65,000 3YO and upward. 0 - 93 Handicap.
R6 $65,000 3YO and upward. Class 3. Handicap.
Moonee Valley: Track Good
Lightning Stakes Day
R1 $100,000 2YO. Listed. Set weights with penalties.
R3 $200,000 3YO Colts & Geldings. Group 3. Set weights with penalties.
R5 $75,000 Mares. Set weights with penalties.
R8 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Morphetville: Track Good
R1 $24,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
This edition of Punt to Win:
You Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.
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