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11/4/2015 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about horse racing favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring horse racing favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday horse races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the horse racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most horse races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 28th. March, 2015.

Doomben: Track Soft.

R2 $65,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Secret Garden
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.20
Jockey: Matthew McGuren
Trainer: Paul Nolan (Junior)
Winner: Highly Gentle
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.70
Jockey: Jim Byrne
Trainer: Tony Gollan

R4 $65,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Craftiness
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.60
Top fluctuation: $1.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.40
Jockey: Timothy Bell
Trainer: Joseph Pride

This edition of Punt to Win:
Where is the best horse racing betting value?
The Free Track Specialists horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: Australian Derby & Doncaster Handicap - 6/4/2015
Group 1 horse racing results: H. E. Tancred Stakes & Storm Queen Stakes - 28/3/2015
Group 1 horse racing results: Golden Slipper Stakes Day - 21/3/2015
Free horse racing Top Four Ratings & betting tips membership package!
Get those betting odds
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 4/4/2015
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 28/3/2015
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 21/3/2015
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 21/3/2015
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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