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13/3/2010 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 20th. February, 2010. On this day the $1,000,000 2YO. Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes and $400,000 Group 1 Oakleigh Plate were held at Caulfield horse racing track.

Rosehill: Track Dead

R1 $70,000 3YO. Rating 71. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Rock Classic
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Tim Clark
Trainer: Bart Cummings

Caulfield: Track Good
Blue Diamond Stakes Day

R3 $125,000 Carlyon Cup. 4YO & up. Group 3. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Rightfully Yours
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Mick Price

Doomben: Track Dead

R1 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Equal Favourite: Tabulate
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.20
Jockey: Jim Byrne
Trainer: Robert Heathcote
Equal Favourite: Honour Happy List
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Luke Rolls
Trainer: Steven O'Dea

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing form analysis - winning form is good form
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Number One Winners horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Newmarket Handicap Day - 6/3/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Futurity Stakes Day - 27/2/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Blue Diamond Stakes day - 20/2/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 6/3/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 27/2/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 20/2/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 20/2/2010
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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