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18/9/2010 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 28th. August, 2010.
On this day the $1,000,000 3YO Group 1 Golden Rose, run over 1400 metres, was held at Rosehill horse racing track.

Doomben: Track Good.

R1 $50,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1350 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Startsmeup
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.10
Top fluctuation: $2.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.90
Jockey: Paul Hammersley
Trainer: Bruce Hill

Morphettville: Track Slow.

R2 $32,000 3YO. Rating 75. Handicap.
Distance: 1250 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Addiction To Rock
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $2.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Jacob Rule
Trainer: Mark Minervini

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting horse racing tips everyone "Knows Will Win"
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Three Lengths horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 11/9/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 4/9/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 28/8/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 28/8/2010
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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