Hi all,

I've been up to my old tricks again looking for ways to improve my results or find more profitable angles. Something I've found is that with my ratings if the BFSP price is within a certain overlay range to my assessed price then it improves the results dramatically. i.e. the following is what I'm talking about:

Betting all selections (TOP 3)
TOP - +7.07 units, 24.76% SR, 3.43% POT, 0.51 Profit/Max Div
2ND - +82.31 units, 19.42% SR, 39.96% POT, 1.48 Profit/Max Div
3RD - +49.21 units, 17.48% SR, 23.89% POT, 3.74 Profit/Max Div

Now if I had only bet those selections if BFSP was less than 2.5x my assessed price:
TOP - +43.14 units, 34.75% SR, 30.60% POT, 5.48 Profit/Max Div
2ND - +48.49 units, 23.72% SR, 31.08% POT, 4.54 Profit/Max Div
3RD - +41.08 units, 18.97% SR, 23.61% POT, 3.50 Profit/Max Div

As you can see it improves the results dramatically both in terms of strike rate and consistency (i.e. profit comes from more resulting bets instead of a single large dividend).

Some of you may remember I looked at this angle a long time ago with my first basic ratings approach and had some success, particularly after reading the Alan Woods interview/article (http://tonywilson.com.au/writing/al...to-riches-story)

What I need to know is from those who use bots (personally created or purchased) is the easiest possible way for me to implement this approach? The main issue being:

Each race is priced differently and therefore the bet/bot needs to take into account my accesssed price when determining if the bet should be placed or not. Most bets allow you to set a basic odds limit like do not bet above $5, but I'm yet to see one that allows you to set something like do not bet above $7.81 for this horse, $9.46 for this horse etc etc.

Is a customized bot/excel setup my only hope? or is there an option I haven't found yet?

I'm pretty keen to get this underway as it seems when my assessed prices are around the mark it proves to be highly profitable (so far - small sample size).

Any help/suggestions appreciated.

Customised bot for sure. BUT you won't know the BFSP until the race commences, therefore, I'd say it's impossible, because you can only specify minimum BFSP price, rather than maximum when actually betting.
It's locked in.
It won't work from my perspective, unless you take a price just before the jump, delays etc will play havoc as will very late liquidity.

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Hey CP,

I figured customized bot would be the only option. What i'm thinking is that I need a bot that will place either a normal exchange bet or a BFSP bet 10 seconds before the off either based on the exchange price or the predicted BFSP price.

I understand this wouldn't then directly align with what I've recorded thus far. However my thinking is that the ones I miss with this process would also be countered by the bets I may gain and overall shouldn't mess with the figures too drastically.

I guess the issue then becomes creating said bot which is another layer of complexity that probably means this isn't a viable approach for me. It's kinda disappointing though, I think it has great possibilities.

Hi Josh,

Is there a sweet spot for your overlay selections?

E.g. Top Pick $3-$6, 2nd pick $5-9, 3rd pick $7-13 etc

Perhaps you could bracket them and run 3 different bots to cater for the different sweet spots?

Just an idea.

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"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Bet Angel has a Projected SP column in excel continually refreshing and then adjacent, the Actual SP at the start. You could easily write an excel function to work off the Projected SP pre race, or the Actual SP at the jump. No special bot required.

Gruss has the same

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