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#61
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Quote:
Chrome Used these equations last night with some success. Have you had a look?
__________________
Pixie "It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash |
#62
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Hi AP,
Yes very interesting and thanks for pointing me to it. Generally, my range is favourites only, so it's not as critical for me, but certainly it would be of great help in pricing anything that wasn't short in the market. I find that setting my percentages just short of the professionals is a good way to go for me. That way I know I haven't made an error. (overall)
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg |
#63
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Selections: March 23rd
Lots of lays tonight.
Date-Time Course - Name 20070323-0050 Wolverhampton - Bobering 20070323-0120 Wolverhampton - Postmaster 20070323-0140 Newbury - Carlitos 20070323-0250 Newbury - Tisseman 20070323-0250 Newbury - Go Solo 20070323-0340 Wolverhampton - Blushing Russian 20070323-0400 Newbury - Fleet Street 20070323-0400 Newbury - Priors Dale 20070323-0410 Wolverhampton - Bay Boy
__________________
Pixie "It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash |
#64
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doh
carlitos horse in point??
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#65
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No selections tonight
Sorry. Have other commitments. Last nights results to follow.
__________________
Pixie "It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash |
#66
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Results: March 23rd
We're not breaking any speed records but steady forward progress is better than none at all I figure.
Date-Time Course - Name 20070323-0050 Wolverhampton - Bobering ... LOST +1.00 20070323-0120 Wolverhampton - Postmaster ... LOST +1.00 20070323-0140 Newbury - Carlitos ... WON -1.10 20070323-0250 Newbury - Tisseman ... LOST +1.00 20070323-0250 Newbury - Go Solo ... LOST +1.00 20070323-0340 Wolverhampton - Blushing Russian ... LOST +1.00 20070323-0400 Newbury - Fleet Street ... WON -4.50 20070323-0400 Newbury - Priors Dale ... LOST +1.00 20070323-0410 Wolverhampton - Bay Boy ... LOST +1.00 === RESULTS: March 6th - March 23rd Pixie: === Number of Selections: 109 Successful Selections: 92 Strike Rate: 84.40% Profit: +21.72units Commission @ 5%: -4.60 units Net Profit: +17.12 units Net POT: 15.70% Daily Donkey: === Number of Selections: 562 Successful Selections: 430 Strike Rate: 76.51% Profit: +48.33 units Commission @ 5%: -21.50 units Net Profit: +26.83 units Net POT: 4.77%
__________________
Pixie "It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash |
#67
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Selections: March 25th
Here we go with the last week. There will be no selections next Saturday March 31st so this thread will end this coming Friday, March 30th.
Good luck. Date-Time Course - Name 20070325-0010 Taunton - Bob Bites Back 20070325-0040 Taunton - Mister Knight 20070325-0100 Southwell - Symbiosis 20070325-0110 Taunton - Man Of Mine 20070325-0140 Taunton - Swansea Bay 20070325-0140 Taunton - Yes My Lord 20070325-0210 Taunton - Garleton
__________________
Pixie "It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash |
#68
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Quote:
AP, Well done with your efforts, you've beaten that stubborn donkey on POT, but he's bucked you off with higher dollar profit. But not by a great deal, your risk is lower. One thing that does worry me is using the SP price minus 5% commission, on some lays you may never have been matched and on others matched at much lower prices. How do you know for accuracy? I think you've done a tremendous job, not too many post lay systems here. Keep up the good work.
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg |
#69
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Results: March 25th
We were very clever and managed to tip two non-runners. That takes a lot of skill Not a bad night other than that.
Date-Time Course - Name 20070325-0010 Taunton - Bob Bites Back ... NON RUNNER 20070325-0040 Taunton - Mister Knight ... LOST +1.00 20070325-0100 Southwell - Symbiosis ... LOST +1.00 20070325-0110 Taunton - Man Of Mine ... LOST +1.00 20070325-0140 Taunton - Swansea Bay ... LOST +1.00 20070325-0140 Taunton - Yes My Lord ... LOST +1.00 20070325-0210 Taunton - Garleton ... NON RUNNER === RESULTS: March 6th - March 25th* Pixie: === Number of Selections: 114 Successful Selections: 97 Strike Rate: 85.08% Profit: +26.72units Commission @ 5%: -4.85 units Net Profit: +21.87 units Net POT: 19.18% Daily Donkey: === Number of Selections: 594 Successful Selections: 455 Strike Rate: 76.59% Profit: +54.42 units Commission @ 5%: -22.75 units Net Profit: +31.67 units Net POT: 5.33% * Excludes Saturday 24th March
__________________
Pixie "It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash |
#70
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Quote:
Thanks Chrome it's been an enjoyable exercise but I wouldn't like trying to make a living from being a tipster. Look's as though I've managed to pick a trial month where the Daily Donky selections are going to finish above 10,000 profit!* Just luck I guess Quote:
Yes I know there are problems there but it's more for illustrative purposes than for accuracy. I'm using SP for ease of comparison with the way the Daily Donkey display their results. As you say there are times when the selections don't get matched, and in fact you'd have missed a number of the "accidents" if you'd priced them up around the Racing Post PP. You'd have missed a number of our successes too, but you'd be doing better than the results posted here. What I'll do at the end of the week is average the "accident" SP's out and use that SP to BF equation do display a projected BF matched price. With Donkey's 132 "accidents" things should even up quite a bit. I know this is not ideal but for the purposes of the exercise (quality over quantity) it's probably good enough. Quote:
Thanks again, but let's not forget the great stuff Michaelg get's up to. * I'd like to think that the Daily Donkey team are lurking here and that they've picked up their game.
__________________
Pixie "It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash |
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