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Old 1st May 2014, 07:27 AM
Rinconpaul Rinconpaul is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 755
Default Keep it Simple?

On a recent thread, a forumite asked a 'million' questions about how to improve his selection success? Armed with the 'bestest' database, "if I did this and tweaked that I'd have the Grail. The more complicated the better as that would put it out of reach for the average punter, so that's got to be a winner.....right?", or thoughts along those lines....lol

How simple can it be to find a winning system? I went on a search to find ONE filter to make SP $2.00 ~ $2.20 horses profitable without using ratings or anything complex, just the Race Class as headlined for every race, and try and keep the no. of selections to a min 10% of the original number.

The actual SR for these selections is 41.9% and returns a -9.75% POT. The theoretical SR is 47.6%.

The answer:

OPEN races! 300 bets 146 wins 48.7% SR and 4.22% POT. Max Outs 6. Max Bank risk 9.5%.

Test period 819 days. Sample selections 3,222.
Now in fairness to the database providers, of which I'm a subscriber, if it wasn't for the fact that I had the ability to analyse past results, I never could have come up with such a simple solution.
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