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2/3/2001 edition

Value Betting

Punters consistently take odds about horses that are way under their true winning chances. That means those punters will most likely lose long term on those bets.

Here are some important points which will help you avoid doing that.

1.The chances of a winner in a race is 100%.

2. All odds can be expressed as percentages.

3. For example ($2.00 or even money = 50 %), ($4.00 or 3/1= 25%.)etc.

4
. Check out the Odds Calculator on this site which gives that information.

5. The more markets total above 100% the worse it is for the punter because it is harder to find value. For example if the favourite is even money - 50%, the second favourite 6/4 - 40% and the next horse 3/1- 25% you already have a market of 115% with just three horses.

6. When you back a horse you must be confident you are getting value.

7. Value is the price available for a horse compared with the horse's true chances of winning.

8. The skill in punting is being able to estimate what a horse's true chances of winning are better than the rest of the market.

9. If you take even money ($2.00) on a horse, to just break even that horse will have to win the race 50% of the time.

10. Next time you are thinking of taking $2.00 about a horse have a look again at the field and ask yourself, "If this race is run 10 times will the horse win at least five times." If your answer is "No," then you are getting poor value and shouldn't back the horse.

11. Similarly in a wide open raffle, say $6.00 or 5/1 the field the media often mislead punters by telling them they will get "value" for whatever they fancy. This is of course typical media nonsense which you need to be aware of.

12. If you level stake a horse six times at $6.00 or 5/1 and win once you will break even.

13. If you are considering taking $6.00 about the favourite in a raffle race have another look at the field and ask yourself, "If this race is run six times will the horse win at least once." Again if your answer is "No," then you are getting poor value and shouldn't back the horse.

This very simple method of asking yourself whether the horse will win enough times over a number of races for you to at least break even at level stakes will put you off many poor value and ultimately losing bets.

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Top Odds Are Important

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Did you back any of these winners last Saturday?
If you did, see the prices you should have got.

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices?
Royal Integrity 6.90 8.50
Quietly Adamant 4.10 5.50
Miss Kournikova 3.10 4.20
Excellerator 1.80 2.50
Jiver 2.00 2.50
The Kildare Kid 4.50 7.00
Arjaye 3.90 5.00

Any punter who backed those seven very gettable winners on Saturday with only $50 bets and obtained good odds is $445 in front of another punter who backed those same winners and took poor odds.

That is an average of $90 a winner missed! That is nine free bets.

This happens week after week. Punters consistently take poor odds and must end up losing. If that is happening to you put an end to it right now.

Give yourself a fighting chance of making a profit.

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