|Win at racing
This section will include information and
articles to help you with form analysis.
Last start Winners
There is a tried and true saying in
racing, "Winners keep on winning, losers keep on losing."
Horses which won at their previous starts provide a rich source of winners.
Here are some key points to consider when doing form. They are not in
any particular order:
1. Was the win within the last four weeks?
2. Is the horse early in its preparation when you can
expect further improvement?
3. Is the horse rising or dropping in weight? If a weight
increase can it handle the increased weight? If the weight is dropping
will this compensate for the rise (if any) in class?
4. Did the horse have to overcome any difficulties to
win or did it get a very soft run?
5. Was the horse eased down near the line or did it have
to work very hard to win?
6. Does the horse have the same jockey? If not, why not?
7. Does the horse have a good strike rate? Low strike
rate horses every so often fluke a win but don't often repeat.
8. Did the horse run a good time?
9. What are the main differences, for example, pace,
between this race and the race the horse won?
10. Do not concern yourself with how the horses it beat
have performed since. That is unnecessary and an irrelevant distraction.
It prevents punters from backing many winners. If you are betting on for
example the footy and considering backing Melbourne you do not reason:
Melbourne beat the Western Bulldogs, the Western Bulldogs have just beaten
Essendon so Melbourne will beat Essendon. Nor would you reason that Melbourne's
win was no good because the Western Bulldogs have just come out next week
and got thrashed. So don't do it with horses!
In racing knowledge is power.
Accurate ratings enable you to compare the ability of one horse with another
when they are fit enough to win and racing over a suitable distance. Here
are some key factors which need to be considered.
Time and Distance
This is the absolute key. You must know what time a horse is
capable of running and over what distance.
For time and distance to be of any use you must devise a method
to allow for time variations at different tracks. For example the 1000
metres at Sandown on a downhill run is run at much faster times than 1000
metres at other tracks.
Horses are equine athletes. Just like humans, some possess far
more natural ability than others. Some have the ability or potential to
run a distance much faster than other horses. Also, just like humans there
are some horses that will never realise their true potential while other
horses will perform to their absolute maximum. The horse's ability on
a racetrack can be affected by many factors such as age, fitness, training
methods, barrier draw, weight to be carried, distance of the race, the
ability of the jockey and so on.
On Good tracks fast horses will win more races than slow horses.
However rain affected surfaces are a big equalizer. That is where the
plodder without the quick turn of foot can win races. It just keeps plodding
away at the same pace.
Heavy weights on rain affected tracks bog down many class horses.
On Good tracks weight is not so significant. However when a horse faces
a weight rise in combination with a change from a good barrier draw to
a very wide barrier draw there is a multipling affect of disadvantages.
A horse's ability to carry weight is a critical factor which cannot be
ignored. It is like the weightlifter who lifts a heavy weight but fails
at the next increased weight. Each horse has an individual weight level
beyond which it cannot perform in races to anywhere near its natural ability.
Track bias can be caused by any number of factors such as the
weather, wind, wear and tear of the track and changed rail positions.
Invariably on rain affected tracks jockeys will ride very wide looking
for the better going.
The Challenge of Ratings
The thrilling challenge of ratings is lining up the form, condition
and ability over a particular distance of one horse with another and then
putting it all together to frame a realistic, value market which long
term makes profits. There is nothing more thrilling than occasionally
obtaining absolutely massive overlays. On 12th. August 2000 I gave Addition
a strong percentage chance of winning at Morphettville. It won and paid
a massive $27.80 on the New South Wales tote.
Bookmakers and Punters
The best bookmakers are highly intelligent and successful businessmen.
They work long hours, study the form thoroughly and are also quick thinking,
able to react quickly without panic to changing circumstances. They enjoy
a challenge but will not accept it if they believe the odds are poor value.
They know that to win they must have an edge. This edge is having the
ability to know when they have the advantage.
The average punter does not have the edge. It is impossible to have an
edge betting from race to race on the spur of the moment. Just look at
the number of punters now even betting on computerised phantom horse races
at the TAB. It is impossible to get an edge. They must lose. There are
punters who will go to casinos, play blackjack and count the cards. That
is smart play. They have the edge. Then there are the majority of punters
who will just sit down at the blackjack table and play. They will never
have the edge and will be long term losers.
The important thing when you have the edge is the ability to use the information
you have to predict the outcome more often than random chance will allow.
That is what the bookie does who spends hours studying form. That is what
the professional punter does. That is not what your average punter does.
You cannot dismiss the ability of the jockey engaged to ride
the horse when trying to evaluate the horse's chances of winning a race.
Statistically it is just about impossible to measure the difference between
any number of leading jockeys: Brett Prebble, Damien Oliver, Darren Gauci,
Jim Cassidy, Danny Beasley, Glenn Boss.
A good, experienced jockey more than compensates for an apprentice's weight
allowance unless we are dealing with an exceptional talent. However there
are also some senior jockeys who I would never back even if they were
on Phar Lap or Tulloch. A chimpanzee could ride the horse better!!
Time and Distance
As I said earlier these are the absolute keys to ratings. You must know
what times a horse can run and over what distance. On Good and Fast tracks
a comparison can be made of the different times run by horses that day
making allowances for many factors such as weight carried, distance of
the race, class and a host of other factors like barrier draws, luck in
running and so on. When you know what time a particular horse is capable
of running on a particular track over a particular distance and you combine
that with an assessment of the weight carrying capacity of the horse you
are well on the way to creating powerful ratings.
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