3/11/2000 edition

Ratings

Over the long term with good ratings you would expect at least a 60% winning strike rate in the top three selections from the races rated. But there are also many factors which affect the strike rate of ratings. 

1.There is a big field with many chances or an average size field which is a wide open affair.

2.The best horses in the race have poor barriers.

3.The best horses in the race are very poorly handicapped.

4.Many horses are resuming from a spell.

5.Most of the horses in the race are very inconsistent or have poor recent form.

6.Many horses have not run on the track or over the distance of the race or in the conditions eg. a heavy track before.

7.There are many young, lightly raced horses in the race which are open to dramatic improvement.

8.There are too many horses with form queries- for example overseas horses or horses starting a preparation with a top new trainer.

9.There are many conflicting form lines- for example horses with country form or with good city form in different states now racing against each other.

In races like these the top six rated selections may not even have a 50% chance of finding the winner! It then becomes very much a matter of judgement as to whether you even provide ratings for these type of races.

One thing is for sure. Good ratings used sensibly give you a huge advantage over the majority of punters.  

Next: Punt to Win 27/10/2000

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