6/4/2001 edition

More Punt to Win Tips

What a plunge

At Rosehill in the 2400 metres Group 3 N. E. Mannion Cup Tiger's Eye was plunged like there was no tomorrow. He was backed in on track from $4.20 to $2.60. That is a huge go - in old terms from 13/4 to 13/8.

We liked Tiger's Eye but at $5.50 possibly wanted too generous odds. However we were very conservative. The horse's last race was only two weeks earlier in Melbourne. So he had to adjust to the travelling interstate as well as the reverse way of going in Sydney (clockwise compared to anti-clockwise in Melbourne.) He had also been up for a long time, though he did have a six weeks freshen up in January and February.

Experience has taught us that to take too short odds on interstate travellers long term does not pay. However this plunge came off. But tote punters on SuperTab were paid a miserable $2.20. At $4.20 you were at least getting some odds, and some punters would argue very good odds. To put it simply:

If you took the $4.20 you could back three losers at the same stake and still be showing 5% profit on turnover.

If you were a SuperTab tote punter and got the $2.10 if you backed three losers at the same stake you will be showing a loss of nearly 50% on turnover.

No wonder tote punters have little chance of winning long term by backing short priced plunge horses on the tote.

Assertive Lad - what went wrong?

In the 1500 metres Group 1 Weight for Age George Ryder Stakes at Rosehill he looked a good bet at $4.00. At his previous start after an interrupted preparation, he was taken to the lead too early by jockey, Chris Munce and was run down near the line by Shogun Lodge, but still finished a good second.

With added race fitness there was no reason not to expect an improved run. That was until he missed the start and the race was over.

While I am not saying it was Chris Munce's fault, many jockeys are at fault when their mounts miss the start. It is the jockey's responsibility to keep their horse's mind on the job. If anything is wrong the jockey can call out and prevent the barriers from opening.

Interesting that there were rumours the Waterhouse camp was sounding out Shane Dye in Hong Kong to come to Sydney and take the mount. Apparently his commitments stopped him. When things go badly wrong for a top horse two starts in a row someone has to take the blame.

Next: Punt to Win 30/3/2001

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