6/7/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

Form lines

Some punters at Victoria Park became very confident about Real Time who was sent out the $3.50 favourite in the Open Handicap, despite having barrier 10 from the tricky 1300 metres start.

The reason being that Slalom had won the race just finished at Moonee Valley, a 1200 metres Open Handicap. So how did that increase Real Time's chances at Victoria Park?

You see, at their previous starts, a 1200 metres race at Swan Hill, Slalom finished second and Real Time finished third, half a length behind him. Now Slalom has come out and won. That somehow mysteriously "confirms the form" or "franks the form". It has never been explained by those in the racing media who regularly push this trivial form line.

It simply does not work.
There are just too many other factors that have to be taken into account.

If you were betting on football you would not say:
Team A has beaten Team B.
Team B has beaten Team C.
Therefore Team A will beat Team C.

Yet this simplistic approach is applied to horse racing. It will not work for football and it will not work for horse racing. By the way, Real Time finished third, beaten six lengths by Manetti.

Beware former John Size trained horses

John Size got phenomenal results. He turned ordinary horses into Group winners! Now that he has moved overseas you need to be very wary of the horses he used to train until their form is confirmed under their new trainers. Some of the horses will never recapture their past glories. Short odds must definitely be avoided.

Take Jubilee Song as an example. This four year old gelding had an outstanding record of three wins and four placings from only eight starts. His unplaced run was a fourth. First up from a spell he had two wins and a second from three starts. At 1100 metres, the distance of last Saturday's race, he had two wins, and three placings from five starts.

Jubilee Song resumed from a seven months' spell last Saturday. He started as the $2.50 favourite and in the 14 horse field finished a distant twelfth.

When questioned by the stewards about the poor performance, jockey Larry Cassidy was unable to offer any reason. Maybe he should have replied, "John Size isn't training the horse anymore." Jubilee Song's new trainer is John Hawkes.

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