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8/9/2000 edition

Irrelevant Form Lines

Many strong punters I talk to all agree on one point.
If you have done your form correctly and like a horse, the form around it, believe it or not is irrelevant.

I can understand if you say that is ridiculous. After all, punters have been so conditioned by the media to look for those form lines. That is of course also how the "media experts" make their selections. However if you are doing sports betting and having a bet on the football you don't reason: Western Bulldogs beat Essendon, Melbourne beat Western Bulldogs so Melbourne will beat Essendon. So why do something like that with horses?

If the horse won its last race these strong punters take no special notice of how the horses it beat went after that race. If it ran a close second or third they take no notice of how the horse/s that beat it went after the race. As far as they are concerned they examine the merits of the horse's run by looking at its race, taking into account factors like video replays, weight carried, sectional times, run in the race, track bias etc.

If the horse that beat it last start is running earlier in the day, unless they have money on it, they hope the horse will flop because they know punters will turn off their chosen horse later in the day and they will get a better price.
Interesting, isn't it?

Remember, to win at racing you can't take the same approach as most punters, or like them, you will lose.


Place Your Bet

Four favourites started odds on at Rosehill last Saturday. Two of them won starting at 4/5 on.

Al Mansour 9/10 on finished third. On Super Tab place punters collected a paltry 1/10 on place dividend - a 10 cents win for every dollar bet. That's why the tote makes a substantial profit on place betting, unlike the each way bookies. If the correct tote payout was $1.19 it was also rounded down to $1.10, effectively wiping out nearly 50% of punters' potential winnings.

Zariz
at 4/11 on finished third in a field of six, so it didn't even pay for the place.
Melbourne's Sunday Herald Sun reported that Brian York, Zariz's jockey was "stunned" after the race and blamed the other jockeys for the horse's defeat.

"The others (jockeys) seemed more interested in trying to get him beaten. Sure, he was a little fractious in the barriers and didn't jump that well, but he picked up the lost ground quickly and was going to settle in behind the leaders when they virtually pulled up in his face. Zariz began to over-race a little, so I decided to let him whip around them three deep and then the leaders quickened again."

Those supposed "good things" lose when least expected in small fields. The reason being that the other jockeys seem to make the run in the race much more difficult for them. It's much easier to focus on one horse in a field of six than in a field of 12.

To occasionally take odds on about a horse is like putting your head in a hot oven. You are tempting fate. To regularly take odds on is like putting your head in a hot oven and closing the door. 

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