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16/11/2001 edition

Betting Market Odds

To be successful long term at the punt it is very important to understand market percentages. The total market percentage in a race is made up by adding together the prices of each runner in the race turned into a percentage. For example $2.00 (even money) is 50%. This is explained in detail.

The more the market is over 100% the more likely punters will lose their money. Some bookmakers rely on punters' ignorance of market percentages to put up completely unrealistic prices. If punters refused to bite then these bookmakers would be forced to put up sensible prices or get another job.

Here is an e mail we received on Cup Day, presumably from a bookie.

----- Original Message -----
From: Michael To: webmaster_at_propun_dot_com_dot_au
Sent: Tuesday, November 06, 2001 2:09 PM
Subject: Bookmakers Prices

" Your bagging of bookmakers for opening markets of 130% is out of line. The problem for bookies is that they can't "fill-in", that is they can't sufficiently lay all the horses in a race. The way to get better prices is to have more people betting on course - something a negative approach to bookmaking is unlikely to achieve. Michael"

We responded to that mail.

"Dear Michael,
Thanks for your comments. I think you may have misunderstood. We are not bagging bookmakers for opening markets of 130%. But we are quite prepared to bag them, Adelaide bookmakers in particular, who have starting price markets often of 130% on a Saturday when form is disclosed.

If you check our menu item Bookmakers are best you will actually see we promote bookmakers, when like in Sydney, they usually offer fair markets.

"They can't sufficiently lay all the horses in a race." We believe this a furphy and have dismissed it in one of our articles. We do not accept the bookmakers' argument that punters only back the winners and the horses bookies can't lay are the losers.

Just look at some of the roughies which are not laid that get up in Adelaide. These horses not laid are loose cannons favouring the bookies - like having several zeros in a very unfair game of roulette.

If market after market is kept at huge percentages, intelligent punters look at the odds and know that whatever horse they like in the race is a long term losing bet because the odds are well under the horse's true winning chances.

When race after race is like that in Adelaide we must question, as we are seriously doing now, how we utilise our resources - study of videos, sectionals etc. etc. for Adelaide racing, as it becomes a waste of time. With Sydney racing, top fluctuation is regularly around 110% and even less on a Saturday.

Once again,
Thanks for your comments.
Regards, Neil."

Next pages
Betting ring odds at Cheltenham
Get value - The Expat was not the "bet of the day"
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Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites

These are losing bets.
Look at the table below and see the percentages lost backing short priced tote favourites compared with bookmaker betting ring prices.

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites to make up for the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Did you back any of these winners recently?
If you did, see the prices you should have got.

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra percentage won Extra Profit $100 bet
Chong Tong 5.60 9.00 74% $340
Into The Night 3.00 5.00 100% $200
Life Goes On Oh 5.10 7.00 46% $190
Bond 4.30 6.00 52% $170
Joie 4.80 6.50 45% $170
Tormentus 2.60 3.80 75% $120
House Guest 3.10 4.20 52% $110
Deprave 2.20 3.00 67% $80
Werewolf 2.50 3.20 47% $70
Expelled 2.00 2.50 50% $50
Marlie 2.10 2.60 46% $50

Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
La Bella Dama 46.10 59.30 $1320
Smilingly 10.40 13.40 $300
Prince Regal 12.90 15.90 $300
Off To Sea 12.50 15.30 $280
Perfect Halo 8.80 11.20 $240
Solemnity 13.00 15.30 $230


 

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