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20/10/2000 edition

Winning Tips

After Saturday's racing I had an interesting discussion  with a successful punter called "Tony". Here are some interesting points that came up in our conversation.

We Didn't Follow The Money

The fourth race at Canterbury, an eight horse restricted plodders' affair over 1900 metres was won by Strange which paid $6.00 on the New South Wales tote.
After Strange just won we were told, "He was the horse they put the money on late."

For the record, before Saturday Strange had two wins from 51 starts. How many of those other races was the money put on Strange late in the betting - and lost? I don't think anyone who chose not to back Strange should have any misgivings about having missed a winner. It's hardly the sort of horse you would want to be backing on a Saturday meeting in Sydney.


1000 Metres Races

Successful punter "Tony" rarely bets in 1000 metres races. He says they are, "Difficult and unpredictable betting affairs." The last at Cheltenham on Saturday was a Class 5 event with 11 starters over the 1000 metres. No real surprise when Angel Dust won first up and paid $45.60 


That's Not Correct  

Last Saturday's meeting at Caulfield was a very tough meeting made even tougher when the rain came. Yet punters were told in the morning, "This is as good as it gets, this meeting." Really? Smart punters want to win long term at racing, not have to deal with tough races with big fields and 10 genuine winning chances in each race.


What is Value?

Carnival racing here in Melbourne means many wide open races. Do not accept that there is so huge value in these races because they are 5/1 the field.

The TAB is not reducing their percentage take  from each race. So there cannot be any more value on the tote. The bookies are not reducing the market percentage they bet to. In fact in big fields they, if anything, increase their percentage. So the bookies are not going to give you any more value.

Value is only in relation to the chances of your horse winning. It is no good getting 10/1 about your horse if in reality it is a 20/1 chance. It is simply incorrect to say that the more open a race the better the value for the punter.

Next: Punt to Win 13/10/2000


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