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22/6/2001 edition

Understanding Ratings

Unfortunately many punters do not understand ratings. This handicaps them in the punting battle. Maybe our explanation here will help.

1. Our ratings rank horses in the order of their winning chances in a race. They do not aim to pick the winner with five or six selections. The horse with the best chances of winning is top rated. The horse with the next best chances of winning is second rated and so on.

2. When ratings are used correctly, punters look for value. Punters get out of the losing habit of simply trying to pick the winner of a race with one selection and then backing it.

3. For example, the top rated selection may be $2.00. Punters who only want to back the top selection if it is value, and there is nothing wrong with that, will leave the race alone because the horse is no value.

4. We also have members who will look at our other rated selections and see where the value is. For example, the second rated selection may be $8.00, clearly value. Members who look for value will back that horse in preference to the $2.00 top selection or leaving the race alone. They may even place a smaller bet on a horse lower down in the ratings like the sixth rated selection.

5."Why do you claim sixth rated selections as winners? Doesn't that mean you are trying to pick the winner with six selections?"

We wouldn't claim a $6.00 winner that was for example fifth rated. If you used the ratings sensibly you wouldn't back the horse when you are only getting $6.00 for the horse and there are four better winning chances in the race.

That means the ratings also identify horses which are poor value and should not be backed. That also of course means the ratings cannot be trying to pick a winner with six selections!

6."But you claim $30 winners that were sixth selections, don't you?"

Yes, and that is no secret. With honest ratings it is an achievement to have a horse winning at those odds in your ratings. We do not deliberately fill our ratings with horses at $20 and $30 like some services do. This means that when a rated horse is at big odds it is a value runner. The sixth selection in a race should be at considerably shorter odds than $30. That means punters backing the horse are getting value.

Many punters have been misled by media tipsters. They will tip just about anything as the top selection in a race, often with the introduction, "For value I'm making this horse my top selection." Yet if really pressed, and noone in the media does it to their colleagues, they would have to admit their top selection is not the horse they even believe has the best chances of winning.

That is not what our ratings are about. We do not deliberately set out to make other horses top selections because the favourite is too short. If we rate the race and the favourite has the best chances of winning the race, then it will be top rated. We just won't back it.

That is also why it is an achievement to have rated horses at $20 and $30 winning. Realistically, they very rarely have the form to be top rated if you are making honest ratings. But smart punters will intelligently use the ratings and put a few dollars on them.

To win at racing long term you must get value. You must also punt differently from the rank and file punters who are guaranteed long term losers. That's why we are quite happy to accept criticism from losing punters that our ratings are trying to pick the winner of a race with six selections. We know better, and our members who sensibly use our ratings and our other information know better.

Next pages
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And more...


Top Odds Are Important

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Did you back any of these winners last week?
If you did, see the prices you should have got.

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra percentage won Extra Profit $100 bet
Holy Grail 5.80 8.50 56% $270
Flying Flea 5.40 8.00 59% $260
Juanmo 4.80 6.50 45% $170
All The Action 3.70 4.50 30% $80
Hirschberg 4.70 5.50 45% $80
Super Covet 3.30 4.00 30% $70
Crocker 2.20 2.80 50% $60
Chekwenya 1.90 2.40 56% $50
Regal Shot 1.50 1.80 60% $30

Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Classic Cliche 29.90 36.90 $700
Twin Fortune 14.00 17.80 $380
Inkamulla 16.70 19.90 $320
Twigum 9.10 11.10 $200
Charity Spring 13.60 15.30 $170
Irish Glen 9.00 10.60 $160
Lady Of Letters 17.00 18.60 $160


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