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22/12/2000 edition
Winning Handicapping Rules
Weight is the great evener in racing. As a horse rises in weight
its chances of winning decreases in handicaps. When horses in handicaps are
asked to carry around 58kg. or more they are often risky bets. There is a
typical media cliché, "The horse has the class,( form, wins, ) so it
deserves the weight." The media tipster then selects the horse which goes
on to lose!
Throw in the double whammy of a weight rise and a poor barrier compared to last
start and you are looking at a very risky betting proposition.
At Flemington racetrack last Saturday Make Mine Magic started as $2.00
favourite in the Open handicap and finished third in the field of seven, beaten
by five lengths. Only two weeks earlier he convincingly won an Open handicap at
Caulfield. He rose in weight from 56.5kg. to 58kg. Despite his class, when asked
to accelerate by Darren Gauci, he didn't. Punters should
not have been taking the $2.00. They should either have backed against him or left
the race alone.
Also at Flemington racetrack last Saturday Voile D'Or started as $3.00
favourite in a field of eight over 2563 metres. Her previous start one week
earlier was a four lengths win over the Cox Plate distance of 2040 metres at
Moonee Valley racetrack. She was tipped to bowl along in front and win easily at
Flemington like she did at Moonee Valley. However she rose in weight from
56.5kg. to 58.5kg. The $3.00 was too short odds. She did bowl along in front, but weakened badly in the
straight and was beaten by five lengths. Give her 56.5kg. again and the result
may well have been quite different.
There is a very common rule used by many computer programmes and form analysts.
It assumes that 1.5kg equals one length.
Increase a horse's handicap weight by 1.5kg and it will perform one length
worse, all other factors being equal.
Decrease a horse's handicap weight by 1.5kg and it will perform one length
better, all other factors being equal.
This rule is not accurate.
Without going into all the complexities, the following guidelines are far more
important. If followed you will back many more winners and avoid backing many
losers.
The more weight a horse has to carry, the more significant a small weight
rise is.
The less weight a horse has to carry, the less significant a large weight rise
is.
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Midweek and Sunday racing.
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