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23/2/2001 edition
Money Munchers

Have a look at the following table.
These 10 horses all ran last Saturday in metropolitan races around Australia.

Money Munchers - February 17, 2001
Horse Number of Races Number of Wins Starting Price Finish
Hawk Eye 12 0 3.00 2
We're Dancing 16 2 4.20 3
Happy Morning 15 2 3.00 5
Oval Office 23 2 4.60 2
Aussie Prospector 35 5 4.00 6
Ladenda 46 7 4.00 4
Astrolante 29 3 3.00 1
Cumannation 33 4 5.50 3
Matheson Boy 40 6 4.20 4
What Report 47 6 4,00 2


What all these horses have in common is a poor winning strike rate. They also were all sent out at short starting prices last Saturday. Only one of them managed to win.

We have all been caught by Money Munchers. These horses very rarely win. But they run just well enough to get your money on them next start. Just as surely they then lose.

Taking short odds about horses with poor winning strike rates is always very risky. If their last start was a good run you need to look at it in this light. After a good run they are just as likely to put in a very ordinary run the following start. Money Munchers are inconsistent horses.

Punters have never made long term profits taking short odds about Money Munchers.
I know a very successful punter called Tony who never backs Money Munchers. He rarely backs a horse with less than a 30% winning strike rate. He also insists on good odds. Only very occasionally does he take under $4.50.

Here is what he has told me. For ease of reference I have put it in point.

1. If you are getting good odds about horses that win regularly you must be able to make money.

2. Make certain the distance of the race is O.K.

3. See if the horse handles the track.

4. The horse must also be able to run in the conditions. Do not use guesswork here. If the horse has never run on a Heavy track do not back it first time on a Heavy.

5. Weight is important. The horse must be able to handle any weight increase. Again no guesswork is used. Do not assume the horse will run O.K. carrying 59kg.

6. Check for pace of the race. Do not back a leader if the race is full of leaders. Do not back a run on horse unless there are at least two leaders in the race.

7. Barriers are important. Do not worry about a wide barrier too much if the horse usually settles near the rear of the field. However a wide barrier is a real concern for a leader or on pace horse, particularly if plenty of horses drawn inside it are leaders or on pace runners.

8. Last but not least the jockey is very important. It is best if the horse has its regular jockey. If not, look for a leading jockey. Only the best apprentices will do. Many apprentices are not worth their claim.


Winning Specials for our elite members:
February 17 Barossa Broadway $35.90
February 11 Desert Sky $19.10

These are not selections that you work out from a complicated list of horses for the race like you get from other services.

These are specials given to all our members with a recommended stake and a recommended minimum price. There is absolutely no room for error.

All you need is the courage to back them. We regularly select horses with excellent winning chances at odds that others dismiss.

Next: Punt to Win 16/2/2001

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Get Those Odds!

Did you back any of these winners last Saturday?
If you did, here are the odds you could have got.

Horse

Odds you could have got

Northerly 7.00
Emisssion 6.00
Assertive Lad 9.00
Fooling 2.50
Exalted Lad 3.50
Nobility 6.00

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