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26/1/2001 edition

How to Bet Trifectas

It is possible to make money playing trifectas. But you need:

1. Good information.
2. To play smart.

Totes take much more money out of trifecta pools than they do for the win pools as the dollar trifecta dividends are higher than win dividends.

Because trifecta payouts are a significantly smaller percentage payout of the tote pool compared to tote win payouts you have to go for value. 

1.You must play trifectas differently to the rest of the tote punters.
2.You must never box short priced favourites.  
3.You must avoid having poor value combinations.
4.Long term it is better to miss out on the occasional collect than include poor value combinations in your trifectas. 

Here is an example of how to play trifectas in practice. Here are the horses and their tote prices for the third race at Eagle Farm last Saturday. 

TAB Number

Tote Price

TAB Number

Tote Price

1 1.90 7 51.70
2 3.30 8 20.60
3 16.60 9 105.00
4 22.60 10 19.50
5 11.10 11 78.70
6 38.20    

Our ratings in order for the race were:
1  2  4  5  8  10
Quite clearly it is seen as a two horse race by tote punters. There is no value taking 1 to win in any realistic combination with 2. Just about every tote punter will have 1 and 2 boxed. Using the ratings the only possible chance of obtaining any value by taking 1 to win is 1 x 4, 5, 8, 10 x 4, 5, 8, 10. With dollar units it will cost $12 or $6 with 50 cents units. However as too many punters will have taken 1 as their trifecta standout to win, the odds are you will still get poor value. Probably better to leave it alone.

However taking 2 to win in a 2 x 4, 5, 8, 10 x  4, 5, 8, 10 trifecta makes a lot of sense. At only $12 for dollar units it promises a payout way over the odds should the popular, odds on favourite, number 1 fail to run a place. 

You might also consider taking third rated 4 to win because it is $22.60!! Use the combinations of 4 x 2, 5, 8, 10 x 2, 5, 8, 10. If you want to take 1 for third do so but take a separate trifecta 4 x 5, 8, 10, x 1. Do not waste your money having a combination of 4 x 2 x 1. There is no value having a $3.30 horse for second with a $1.90 horse for third.

The result of the race:
2 - 8 - 4
The trifecta paid $671 on the New South Wales tote. 

Combining our ratings with intelligent punting and a big collect for a small outlay was possible. 
It means you can have many outs and still finish in front. That's what punting is all about.
Have good information and bet smart.  

Number one was our top rated horse because it had the best chances of winning. But at $1.90 we would never recommend any of our members back it for the win. It simply offered no value. You either back against it or leave the race alone. You either take trifecta combinations against it or leave the race alone. 

Some of the best value trifectas for punters are when odds on tote favourites fail to run a place. So I know what I'd be doing. What about you? 

Next: Punt to Win 19/1/2001

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