|
Punt to Win |
|
Value Bets Explained "Do you really mean not one horse can be value in
a race?" Because punters are betting into markets of over 100% often many races will not have one horse that is a value bet. Any win bet made by the punter in that race will be a long term losing bet. We know this will be difficult to understand, particularly
for punters who are conditioned to pick the winner of a race, and then
back it. An easy explanation, and one used by a visitor on our Horse Racing Forum, is to consider a throw of one dice. There are six numbers with equal chances. Each number is a true 5/1 or $6.00 chance. Expressed as a percentage each number has an equal 16.66% chance of coming up. Multiply that by six and you get 100%. Look at the following table. Imagine these are the odds you are given on a number from a throw of the dice.
We all know the correct odds are 5/1 or $6.00. All odds offered are under. Any bet you make is a long term losing bet because you are getting under the true chances. The market percentage of those offered odds also totals 123.58%. That is not an uncommon market percentage for a horse race. Similarly in many of those horse races it does not matter what horse you back. You will get under the horse's true chances of winning. Where punters get tricked is that fair odds for horses are not so obviously clear cut as fair odds on the throw of a dice or the toss of a coin. But one thing is for certain. It does not matter how good you are at selecting winners. If you are not getting a fair price for your selections you cannot make a profit long term. It is impossible to beat poor value odds. With the tote that is often the case because they have a standard market percentage of around 120%. That is why we have also had a go at bookmakers when they sometimes set markets to ridiculously high percentages like in the recent Brisbane Carnival. It often means, no matter how good you are, that not one horse in the race is a fair bet for the punter. If punters refused to bet under those circumstances prices would have to be eased out. One thing is for sure, when Robbie Waterhouse starts standing again shortly in the Sydney betting ring after his 17 year's warning off/suspension, things will certainly liven up. There will be better value on offer for astute punters. Next
pages
Top Odds Are Important If you regularly get poor odds
you must lose.
Back Tote Longshots?
Copyright ©1998-present. OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved. |
|
|
|||
| Disclaimer: This site covers various aspects of horseracing in Australia. We provide betting tips, online gambling strategy and links to many thoroughbred sites. OZmium Pty Ltd is not responsible for the content of the links and also accepts no liability for financial loss or misadventure caused by the information provided here. We strongly recommend you bet within your budget and only with money you are prepared to risk. | |||